Leafs made risk assessment in Amirov pick
GIVE TEENAGE WINGER HIS CHANCE TO BLOOM
Two words for exasperated and frustrated fans of the Maple Leafs: Calm down.
The world is not about to end because the Leafs drafted Russian teenage winger Rodion Amirov with their first pick Tuesday night in the National Hockey League draft.
There are all kinds of things to scream about these days. Screaming about the Leafs drafting the wrong player — if they’ve, in fact, drafted the wrong player — is a waste of good sporting anger.
Here’s the truth about what the Leafs did on Tuesday night: We don’t know. We may not know for years. And they don’t know. And they may not know for years.
They took the player they believed in most with the 15th choice in Round 1. They didn’t make the obvious move, drafting one of the two best defencemen available on a team in need of defensive players. They chose to pass on Western Canadians kids Braden Schneider, who went to the Rangers, or Kaiden Guhle, who went 16th to Montreal, and around the NHL there was a lot of head- shaking about the choice made by general manager Kyle Dubas.
There will be a whole lot of monitoring or comparing Guhle to Schneider to Amirov in the coming years. The Leafs greatest need right now could be a right- shot defenceman. Schneider is a right- shot defenceman. Guhle, a left shot, is more of an offensive threat at a time when that element of play is becoming more and more important. But these picks are not for right now.
The GMS I talked to Wednesday thought the defencemen were better suited for the Leafs than Amirov. Those teams had rated Schneider and Guhle ahead of Amirov. But once upon a time the Boston Bruins had three straight picks in 2015 and their scouts passed on Matt Barzal, Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot. And this is a Boston team that has drafted very well over the years.
But here’s what’s not talked about much on draft night, where every pick is advertised as a great one and every kid is a great kid and he’s going to be a great player and boy, can that guy ever fish. What’s not talked about — how much of a crapshoot this is. How much of a guessing game is it to determine which 18- year- old hockey player will be terrific at age 25.
The Leafs traded Kasperi Kapanen, a middle of the roster, professional player, for Pittsburgh’s first- round choice. Kapanen will be playing in the NHL this year and for many years to come, barring some kind of significant setback.
The Leafs needed the cap space they got from trading Kapanen. That was the purpose of the deal. If Amirov gets to the NHL, that’s a bonus over time, even if it’s not until 2023. The fact that he’s tiny and the defenceman the Leafs passed on are not, that will be a topic of conversation for years.
What wasn’t talked about much was the distinction regarding where you pick in the first round. Not all firstround — picks are created equal. And if Dubas wants to quick- fix the Maple Leafs roster — and he does, and he needs to, that will come from trades, free agency and some salary- cap magic. Waiting for Amirov seems an afterthought at this stage of Leafs development.
More truth about the NHL draft. If you have a pick between 10 and 20, it’s pretty much a roll of the dice.
The odds of getting a great player in that 10-to-20 range, is about 12 per cent, and that comes from breaking down drafts in the 10- year period between 2007 and 2016.
The odds, in that time, of getting a getting a good NHL player is around 25 per cent, which is almost exactly the odds of getting a draft bust.
And the odds are actually more than 60 per cent that the draft pick at 15 will be just an average third-liner or lower NHL player, or worse than that, perhaps someone who plays a few games or none at all.
So while Amirov’s agent, Dan Milstein, compares him to former Hart Trophy winner and current Stanley Cup scoring leader Nikita Kucherov and the Leafs are thrilled by their choice, Montreal loves adding Guhle to an already strong defence while the Rangers add Schneider after being fortunate enough to draft Alexis Lafreniere with the first pick overall, time will tell us what all or any of this means.
If the Leafs have drafted a Vladimir Tarasenko here, the way St. Louis did picking 16th in 2010, the screaming about the choice will turn to dancing. The picks taken after and before Tarasenko have combined to score seven NHL goals.
That’s what happens in the NHL draft. You get a shot and you hope there’s no reason to be upset about the drafting of Amirov. And you hope some more.
NOT ALL FIRST-ROUND PICKS ARE CREATED EQUAL.