Mideast allies fear return of ‘Obama doctrine’
While North America endures U. S. President Donald Trump’s protracted swan- song tantrum, the Middle East is bracing for the likelihood of a sharp turn in foreign policy that may disrupt whatever stability there is in the region.
Monday morning headlines disclosed the pending nomination of Antony Blinken as president-elect Joe Biden’s choice for secretary of state, confirming speculation regarding one of the most important cabinet positions in the new U. S. government. An experienced diplomat, with clear partisan affiliation, Blinken is seen to be inclined to revive former president Barack Obama’s approach to foreign policy, which has many in the Middle East very concerned.
So concerned, in fact, that on Sunday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopped on a private jet at Ben Gurion Airport with Mossad chief Yossi Cohen — setting off a minor scandal in Israel. Destination: Saudi Arabia.
Netanyahu, apparently, did not disclose to the Israel Defense Forces chief of staff — or any other key security or government officials — that he and Cohen were popping off to an enemy country for a tête- à- tête. Touching down for just over an hour on Sunday evening in the seaside town of Neom, the pair met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was wrapping up a quick sweep through the region to confer with key allies.
There is a view that Bibi and Cohen hoped to return with a commitment from MBS to formalize a normalization agreement with Israel before Biden’s inauguration, but that pipe dream was not to be. Much more likely was that the Saudis and Israelis would share concerns — as they surely did — regarding a possible American policy shift and the immediate implications for regional security.
And that means one thing: containing Iran.
The polarization of American politics and foreign policy may have been exacerbated in the Trump years but by no means is it his legacy alone; he shares that distinction with his immediate predecessor, Barack Obama. In the Middle East, Trump’s character may not be admired but many of his policies are, whereas Obama’s administration was and is regarded with strong distrust.
Many regional powers — among them key U.S. allies — were threatened by the policy that became known as the “Obama doctrine.” In a nutshell, his Mideast foreign policy approach adhered to the view that America must re- channel its deployment of military and economic power in a more nuanced manner, and coax and tempt Iran with more carrots, fewer sticks. This, Obama was certain, would mellow the tyrannical ayatollahs and encourage them to rejoin the “family of nations.”
Such was the misguided foundation upon which the Iran nuclear deal and other ventures were premised. It also flew in the face of what many countries in the region believed to be prudent.
The Iran threat is considered to be existential by many countries in the region, a perspective dismissed by Obama as being grossly exaggerated. His resulting policy approach alienated and angered key allies and gave impetus to the once secret and now very public alliance between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations. Security co-operation among these formerly forsworn enemies quickly led to increased commercial ties and, in something of a mini- torrent, the negotiation of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab countries; an unthinkable development just five years ago.
Even Obama’s secretary of state, John Kerry, has expressed misgivings about various aspects of
Mideast foreign policy under his tenure, particularly the former president’s failure to act on his “red line” warning in August 2013, after Syrian President Bashar Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. Kerry understood, belatedly, that this failure resulted in severe damage to American credibility in the region.
Love or revile him, Trump did respond to Syria’s continued use of chemical weapons, as he said he would. He promised a “deal of the century” for Middle East peace and made more progress to that end than many before him. People may loathe his posturing and coarse language, but Trump’s style resonated in the region. He did what he said he would. This is not a region of liberal democracies. And as the facts on the ground for the past 40 years have demonstrated, clearly, the Iranian regime is committed to fomenting regional and global terrorism by supporting Islamist regimes and organizations. Full stop.
And so, as the region considers the policy leanings of a Biden administration, concern is pitched, reflected in the busy work that has been going on since the U. S. election. And the Trump administration is spinning wheels and making noise to make it as difficult as possible for the Biden administration to undo what it sees as its key policy legacy and achievements.
The noise, however, is for show: to demonstrate to the new administration that the reality on the ground in the region is very different from what prevailed in 2016, at the conclusion of Obama’s presidency. The concerns with Iranian militarism and support of extremist operatives such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, for example, cannot be swept aside, again, to vindicate or revive Obama’s preferred approach, one in which key Biden appointees have invested considerable professional energy for decades.
Among them is Blinken who, fortunately, receives the highest praise from the global foreign policy community engaged in the Middle East. Reflective, disciplined, brilliant and highly experienced are the usual descriptors applied to the man who, overnight, has become one of the most powerful unelected officials in the world.
His every word, frown, gesture will be parsed carefully, as the Middle East holds its collective breath, waiting to see his opening moves.