National Post (Latest Edition)



LONDON • Just as light was beginning to emerge at the end of a very long and gloomy tunnel, the South African variant of the virus threatens to undermine the vaccine and testing gains of recent months.

Brian Pinker, 82, received the first Oxford vaccine in Britain Monday, yet there are real concerns that he and the hundreds of thousands of others who have had their shots may not be fully protected against this latest mutation.

Clearly the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency ( MHRA) is expecting some vaccine tweaks to be needed as it has already begun to look at how quickly an altered jab could be approved, and Matt Hancock has said he is “very worried.”

The problem lies in how the virus has mutated. Variants of coronaviru­s have been around since the beginning of the pandemic and are a natural evolutiona­ry process by which viruses adapt to their hosts as they replicate.

Most of these mutations have no effect, but occasional­ly they can improve the ability of the virus to infect or become more resistant to the body’s immune response. This is one such occasion.

The South African variant has three mutations in important genes. One, the N501Y mutation, has already been found in the U.K. variant and could be responsibl­e for it being so infectious.

But the South African version carries two more mutations — E484K and K417N — that are absent in the British version and make it far more worrying.

“These two additional mutations may interfere more with vaccine effectiven­ess in the South African variant than in the U. K. variant,” said Dr. Julian W. Tang, honorary associate professor and clinical virologist at the University of Leicester.

“This does not mean the existing COVID-19 vaccines will not work at all, just that the antibodies induced by the current vaccines may not bind and neutralize the South African variant as well as it would the other circulatin­g viruses — including the U.K. variant.”

The South African variant carries mutations in a gene that builds spike proteins — the rodlike structures on the outside of the virus which attaches to human cells.

Spike proteins are also produced by vaccines so that the body knows what to look for and what to fight off.

So any significan­t changes to the spike protein may mean the body can no longer spot the virus, even after vaccinatio­n or a previous infection, and antibodies produced in anticipati­on may not be able to attach properly in order to clear it away.

Worryingly, the mutations may also mean that it is harder to pick up cases through the normal polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, so it could have already spread widely. It quickly became the dominant variant in the Eastern and Western Cape provinces of South Africa.

Yet there is still hope. Even if the new variant is more infectious, it may not cause more severe disease.

Chris Whitty, the U. K.’s Chief Medical Officer, and Patrick Vallance, Britain’s Chief Scientific Officer, are believed to have briefed Prime Minister Boris Johnson, claiming they are not overly concerned about the new variant.

Even if the South African variant becomes more widespread and dominant, both vaccines can be modified to be more effective against this variant in as little as six weeks.

Most scientists believe that existing vaccines will still work to some extent, even if the new variant lowers the overall efficacy.

The mutations have not altered the shape of the spike protein to such an extent that antibodies cannot bind at all, they may just be less effective.

“It is not anticipate­d that this mutation is sufficient for the ‘South African’ variant to bypass the protection provided by current vaccines,” said François Balloux, professor of computatio­nal systems biology at University College London.

“It’s possible new variants will affect the efficacy of the COVID vaccines, but we shouldn’t make that assumption yet about the South African one.”

Researcher­s are working round the clock to find out just how dangerous this new variant is, and new lockdown measures will undoubtedl­y help to stem the tide, and give scientists room to find a new solution.

James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and professor of structural biology at the University of Oxford, said: “We can all help if we redouble our efforts to wash our hands, wear a mask and socially distance.

“The faster and further the vaccine is rolled out, the quicker the end to this nightmare.”

 ?? STEVE PARSONS / POOL VIA REUTERS ?? Brian Pinker becomes the first to get the Oxford University/astrazenec­a vaccine on Monday at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford, Britain.
STEVE PARSONS / POOL VIA REUTERS Brian Pinker becomes the first to get the Oxford University/astrazenec­a vaccine on Monday at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford, Britain.

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