It’s all about the base
Tory leader condemns inmates as poll numbers fall
Erin O’toole wants all Canadians to see themselves in his Conservative Party. “Canadians haven’t always seen themselves in our party. We are going to change that,” he says in a new online ad.
O’toole recognizes that winning an election will require him to convince voters who backed other parties last time around, and he has already started wooing “working families” and union members.
But the new spirit of glasnost in O’toole’s iteration of the party clearly does not extend to inmates in federal penal institutions (who can vote).
In response to the news that federal correctional facilities will inoculate 600 prisoners with COVID vaccine, the Conservative leader tweeted that “not one criminal should be vaccinated ahead of any vulnerable Canadians or front-line health workers.”
It was a response that was applauded by the party’s base. “Paul Bernardo gets vaccine before all the grandparents in LTC ( long- term care facilities)? Only in Canada,” said one online respondent.
But it was widely criticized by O’toole’s political opponents and some public health professionals.
“Being incarcerated does not strip people of their right to equal health care access,” said NDP MP Taylor Bachrach.
O’toole’s team rationalized his position by pointing out the National Advisory Committee on Immunization recommended prisoners be immunized only after long-term care residents and staff, health- care workers, and adults in Indigenous communities had received their inoculations.
However, the NACI said it would provide guidance on the use of vaccines “upon further review of the evidence.”
And the evidence suggests that there are some hot spots in federal prisons where the action is required on an urgent basis.
When the pandemic first appeared, there were fears that it would spread like wildfire in all federal institutions because of poor ventilation and the impossibility of physical distancing.
While the worst-case scenario has been avoided — there have been 1,146 cases and three deaths among the 14,000 federal prisoners since COVID first hit — there have been pockets of infection, such as in the Joyceville Institution in Ontario, where there are 67 active cases, and Saskatchewan Penitentiary, where 74 inmates are sick. Over the course of the pandemic, Joyceville has recorded a positivity rate ( the percentage of all tests that prove positive) of 19.5 per cent. The World Health Organization recommends that the ratio remain below five per cent.
Paul Bernardo is not going to be vaccinated before some sick grandma in a long- term care facility. For one thing, he is incarcerated in Millhaven Institution, which has had no recorded cases.
But for the sake of inmates, correctional officers and surrounding communities, outbreaks in prisons need to be contained.
This is a sentiment with which O’toole, who is a thoughtful man, likely has some sympathy.
So what explains him coming across like a dispenser of Old West rough justice?
We need look no further than the most recent opinion polls. A new Nanos Research survey suggests that if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would regain their majority with 40 per cent support and the Conservatives would win just 25 per cent of the votes.
The Nanos poll also indicated that Justin Trudeau is the preferred prime minister for twice as many Canadians as O’toole.
It can be argued, as the Conservative leader did in an interview with the National Post before Christmas, that Canadians are merely rallying around the flag because they don’t feel secure enough in their health and economic situation to look for alternatives to the incumbent government.
But that argument would suggest stasis. That’s not what the Nanos poll suggests.
If these numbers are borne out in other opinion surveys, not only is O’toole not denting Trudeau’s appeal, he is losing the support of his own base.
Whenever Conservative backing slips below its supposed floor of 30 per cent, MPS start to get nervous.
The leader’s impotence can be tolerated, up to the point it threatens the political survival of caucus members.
It’s interesting that Trudeau’s popularity has spiked at a time when he’s been more understated than at any time since he became Liberal leader. His social media feeds have been uncharacteristically short of toothy holiday snaps — in stark contrast to the frequency of O’toole’s interjections.
As the public’s patience is taxed by new lockdowns and fresh political incompetence, Trudeau’s visibility may start to work against him.
The prime minister has expressed his frustration at the slow pace of vaccine rollout but he is not some stupefied bystander.
However, the blaze is burning too fiercely right now for voters to think about the political future.
O’toole is left trying to save the furniture and convince the Conservative base that expanding the party’s appeal does not mean abandoning its articles of faith.
O’toole is left trying to save the furniture.