Pandemic theatre wearing thin
The good news for Ontarians, after Tuesday’s release of ostensibly alarming new coronavirus modelling, and the announcement of supposedly gamechanging anti- pandemic measures, is as follows: Unlike Quebecers, they won’t be subject to a curfew. Indisputably safe activities such as going out for a walk at 9:17 p.m. will remain legal in Ontario even for people who don’t own dogs. (Canines are one of the exemptions Quebec granted to the 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew that kicked in over the weekend.)
In a press conference on Tuesday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he didn’t like the idea of The Man getting up in people’s business just for pulling out of the driveway after 8 p.m.
His instincts there are sound. Human beings matter a lot more than dogs. There are almost no reasons to believe a curfew would make much of a difference in Ontario, and more than zero reasons to wonder if it might not make things worse — by forcing the same number of people to shop for essentials during fewer hours of the day, for example.
Having rejected the idea of a curfew, however, on Tuesday Ford announced a “stay-at-home order” that in theory boils down to something even harsher.
“We need people to only go out only for essential trips to pick up groceries or go to medical appointments,” he said.
“Urgent and decisive action,” he called it.
“The province will provide authority to all enforcement and provincial offences officers, including the Ontario Provincial Police, local police forces, bylaw officers, and provincial workplace inspectors to issue tickets to individuals who do not comply with the stay- at- home order,” a government press release vowed.
Aside from the “stay- athome order,” newly implemented rules include demanding that “all businesses … ensure that any employee who can work from home, does work from home.” We are to presume the workplace inspectors will be checking receipts.
In an all-too-typical feat of black comedy, after days on end of teasing the new modelling and new restrictions, Ford’s government was not prepared on Tuesday to provide the actual legal text of the new rules. As such, they cannot be judged. Communications officers’ descriptions of new legislation often deviate violently from what the actual legislation says, the better to serve the government’s political purposes. We shall see what reality brings us on Wednesday; the rules go into effect 12:01 a.m. Thursday.
But unless Ontario’s enforcement authorities take these rules as an invitation to power- trip, this “stay- athome order” does not seem very compelling even in the government’s description. “Essential trips” are defined as including those “to the grocery store or pharmacy, (to access) health care services, ( and) for exercise or for essential work.”
Walking is exercise, with or without a dog. It’s terrific that’s still allowed, though it’s nothing more than Canadian citizens should demand, even in a pandemic. But it’s not going to change any game.
“Essential work,” meanwhile, seems to be up to your boss to define. That’s probably not so great. To the extent Ontario public health officials know where COVID- 19 is being transmitted, it’s clear a lot of it is happening in workplaces that were not allowed to open during the first months of lockdown. Ford’s government seems disinclined to force them closed again.
And then, as always, there is the utterly blinding incoherence of what fell out of the Queen’s Park legislature on Tuesday.
The “stay- at- home order” kicks in concurrently with a new rule limiting the number of people who can gather outdoors in public — i.e., not at home — to five.
Huh?
You can still get married, indoors or out — i. e., not at home — with 10 people in attendance.
Wha?
Under the new rules, “discount retailers and big- box stores” will still be allowed to sell whatever they want — i. e., not just “essentials” — but will have to close by 8 p. m., as will all other kinds of retailers, including those restricted to curbside pickup.
Drug stores and grocery stores ( as somehow distinguished from “discount retailers and big- box stores”), however, will have no limits on their hours. This is pandemic management by random- number generator. In combination, the whole package of restrictions is now even more ludicrous than it was before.
It remains testament almost entirely to the efforts of Ontarians, and not much to those of their governments, that the COVID-19 situation isn’t very much worse than it is. And it’s bad, no question about it. But the shock value is clearly losing currency, and understandably so.
The new modelling Ontario released Tuesday shows that if case numbers continue to increase at their current rate, or faster, then a lot of bad outcomes will continue to increase at the same rate, or faster: hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths, the postponement or avoidance of other necessary medical treatment. The risk of an overwhelmed medical system has never been more acute.
It is certainly always worth reminding people of this. But that’s what the last round of modelling showed too. It’s no more surprising than the bank charging interest on your mortgage. The more people internalize and accept it, the less any government can do to change course. Ontario’s has never seemed particularly inclined to try. As gruesome as the results have been, there are upsides. You can go for a walk, for example. And you probably should.