Ontario warns U.K. variant poses whole new threat

In what soon could become an inevitable yet one more grim development, Ontario officials are investigating whether a highly contagious, mutated strain of the COVID-19 virus could already be circulating in Canada.

Ontario announced eight new cases of the so- called U. K. variant Tuesday, bringing Canada’s confirmed total to at least 22. Cases have also been found in Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec.

Five of the eight new Ontario cases have been linked to recent travel to the U. K. However, as of Tuesday, there was no known travel link in the three others. “If that’s confirmed, we have evidence of community transmission and that is a very serious concern that the vaccine will not be able to address quickly enough,” said Dr. Barbara Jaffe, Ontario’s associate chief medical officer of health.

The investigation is continuing, and Jaffe encouraged people to come clean about recent travel, “even though they think maybe that might get them into trouble; of course it would not,” she said, unless, of course, they lied. A Durham Region couple that tested positive for the U. K. variant has reportedly been charged with public- health related offences after initially telling public health officials they had no contact with travellers, which later proved to be false.

When asked if the three new Ontario cases were connected to the Durham couple, a spokesperson for Durham Region’s health department said she couldn’t comment because the investigation is still active.

The variant, known technically as B. 1. 1. 7, is believed at least 56 per cent, and possibly up to 74 per cent, more contagious than the current dominant strain.

While it’s not more lethal, and approved vaccines are believed still effective against it, should the variant start sowing COVID-19 in Canada, it could drive substantially higher case counts, with confirmed cases doubling every 10 days in Ontario, down from 35 or 40 days, according to new modelling data.

As case numbers grow, it will mean more hospitalizations, more people in intensive care, and more deaths. Unless people reduce their contacts, deaths could exceed first wave totals. And while vulnerable groups are being prioritized for vaccines, it could take months to get 60 to 70 per cent of the general population vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, Jaffe said.

The U. K. variant plunged England into its third national lockdown earlier this month. Dozens of countries have recorded cases. A South African strain, of which there is one confirmed case in Canada so far, is also causing concern.

“Knowing our quarantine process isn’t perfect, knowing people can beat quarantine ... if you don’t have an absolute perfect quarantine process it’s going to show up here” said Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious diseases physician and professor at Mcmaster University in Hamilton.

The burden is still unclear. In Canada, about five per cent of positive COVID-19 samples are being genetically sequenced to look for mutations. The U. K. strain has 17 key mutations that alter the spike protein the SARS- COV-2 virus behind COVID uses to enter human cells.

“It’s here, we can assume it’s here, probably in small numbers like it was in the U. K. in September,” Chagla said. “But I think we’re probably going to see this grumbling — the variant showing up more and more — over the next few weeks to months.”

While new COVID rules require pre- departure testing for all travellers flying into Canada, post- departure testing, testing while in quarantine, more surveillance and more supervised quarantines “are going to be incredibly important” to buy time for a vaccination campaign, Chagla said. “The last thing we want is to have more introduction into Canada that leads to more chains of transmission, which leads to more B. 1. 1. 7 around.”