Leafs need to work past their inconsistency
Five games in, the second-guessing now begins for Sheldon Keefe and a Toronto Maple Leafs team that is once again playing below its potential.
We say that knowing full well that the Leafs are 3-2-0 — not 2-3-0, like the Edmonton Oilers or Vancouver Canucks. Today, that record is good enough for a share of first place in the crowded and competitive North Division. But following a 3-1 loss to Edmonton on Wednesday, when Toronto failed to put space between themselves and a team on the rocks, it’s not difficult to see that things aren’t quite as right as they should be in the centre of the hockey universe.
And Keefe knows it. “We feel like we could be at 5-0 if we were able to be more consistent or play like we are capable of,” said the Leafs head coach, who made a point of finding the silver linings in the team’s two losses. “The Ottawa game, we gave that lead up and last night that game was right there for us. We didn’t like a lot of things about our game but I think if we’re all being honest, it’s a game that really could have gone either way.”
If we’re being totally honest, that tying goal never seemed like it was going to come against the Oilers on Wednesday. Not in a game where the Leafs looked flat and managed just six shots on net in the third period. Not in a game where Toronto played it far too safe.
Something was missing from the offence. And if we’re being honest, it’s been missing for more than just one game.
The top two line lines aren’t producing like they should be. The 11-7 split between forwards and defencemen has ruined the rhythm of the fourth line and the bottom D-pairing. The team is getting little out of Joe Thornton, Jason Spezza or Wayne Simmonds. And it’s getting even less out of Ilya Mikheyev.
Now, with Thornton injured and Matthews questionable for Friday’s rematch against the Oilers, the lines are being juggled for the first time this year.
Jimmy Vesey, who couldn’t produce on a line with John Tavares and William Nylander, is now on a line with Matthews (if he plays) and Mitch Marner, while Zach Hyman joined Tavares and Nylander in his rightful spot among the top six. Meanwhile, Rasmus Sandin looks like he’ll replace Travis Dermott or Mikko Lehtonen as the sixth or seventh defenceman. Maybe that will unlock an offence that has scored just five evenstrength goals in the past four games. Maybe that will lead to some consistency.
At the same time, it’s not like the Leafs have started out poorly.
With six points in five games, the team is on a 98-point pace that would make Mike Babcock happy. And with the new attention to defence — Toronto ranks fifth in the league in shots allowed per game, a significant increase from ranking 19th last season — the former coach would probably be even happier with how they are accomplishing it.
And yet, it’s difficult to say that the Leafs are playing like a divisional leader or even as their above .500 record would suggest. They are not even playing like the typical Leafs.
Yes, Toronto’s Big 4 of Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander have combined for 10 goals and 22 points. But five of those goals were scored on the power play and another came while the opponent’s net was empty. Tavares still doesn’t have an even-strength goal. Nylander hasn’t picked up an even-strength point since the season opener.
Aside from that sloppy season-opener against the Montreal Canadiens, when the Leafs twice erased leads by scoring three goals in the final 22 minutes of regulation — and then won in overtime — when has Toronto’s offence looked dangerous? When has this team used its skill to take over a game?
You could say that this is just a five-game sample. But it looks more like a team that wants to be defensively responsible, but still hasn’t figured out how to chew gum and score goals at the same time.
“We’ve shown real progress in the areas where we wanted to see progress in,” said Keefe. “Last night was just a great example of how we were able to not get frustrated and not crack defensively. I thought we stayed with it throughout and that gave us a chance to win, even though you’re down 1-0 for the vast majority of the game. We stayed with it and that shows the discipline that we have that way.”
This is the way that Babcock had wanted the Leafs to play. And it’s the way the
WE COULD BE AT 5-0 IF WE WERE ABLE TO BE MORE CONSISTENT.
team knows it will have to play if it wants to win a Stanley Cup. But before they get too far ahead of themselves, the Leafs first have to make the playoffs.
And in this division, that’s no longer a given.
This shortened season, which is unlike any other season, doesn’t have the easy games built into the schedule. There is no automatic two points against Detroit or Chicago or even Ottawa anymore. It’s a night-on, nightoff grind, with little breathing room.
Every game matters. Every lost point in standings matters, too.
Maybe the Leafs shouldn’t be 5-0, but they should at least be 4-1. And because they’re not, they’re suddenly staring down what has become the first must-win of this season against Edmonton on Friday.
This is a test, not just for Keefe, who for the first time this year is tinkering with his lineup, but also for the entire team. How will the Leafs, who responded with a win after losing to the Senators, now respond in their rematch against the Oilers, a team that is breathing down their necks in the standings?
Will they open up their game and try to play runand-gun against Connor Mcdavid and Leon Draisaitl and a defence that should be ripe for the taking? Or will they sit back again and play it safe?
Either way, they better pick up the two points.