WHY CITIES AREN’T GOING TO DISAPPEAR ANYTIME SOON.
the central cities are clearly experiencing a decline as evidenced by rising vacancy rates for residential and commercial properties, falling rents and storefronts being boarded up, while the suburbs are attracting residents and workers in large numbers.
Since the onset of COVID-19, central cities have experienced an outward migration of residents and workers such that growth rates have declined for the urban core and increased for suburban cities, but the numbers do not suggest an exodus is in the making. data released by Statistics Canada this month also dispel the notion that the cities are quickly emptying.
Localized percentage increases in population might suggest more populous cities are laggards, yet their net increase in population, even at lower rates, is much higher owing to their large population base.
Take the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), which comprises the City of Toronto and the surrounding contiguous suburban municipalities to form an interlinked urban community whose interdependencies are evident from the number of trips between the constituting municipalities.
The Toronto CMA’S population between July 2019 and July 2020 increased by 92,435 to reach 6.55 million, an annual increase of 1.43 per cent. By comparison, the Oshawa CMA to the east, despite a higher increase of 2.08 per cent, reported only 8,614 more persons. Similarly, the Halifax CMA reported an increase of 2.05 per cent, resulting in 9,015 more residents.
Similarly, the Vancouver CMA with a growth rate of 0.81 per cent grew by 36,536 persons, while the Calgary CMA had a much larger growth rate of 1.93 per cent, but that only translated into 29,254 more inhabitants.
Changes in population result from a complex series of calculations to account for incoming and outgoing populations. Population increases with births and immigrants and declines with deaths and emigrants. Furthermore, residents leaving one province for another cause a decline in one area and an increase in another, and the same is true of moves within provinces for CMAS.
The Toronto CMA population between 2019 and 2020 grew by 92,435 — the net value of all inflows and outflows — but that doesn’t reveal that 50,375 residents left to live elsewhere in Ontario. The net increase in the Toronto CMA population is buttressed by the inflow of 96,664 immigrants and 23,725 non-permanent residents.
The same is true for the Montreal and Vancouver CMAS: about 24,880 persons left Montreal to settle elsewhere in Quebec, and 12,189 left Vancouver to settle elsewhere in B.C.
These three CMAS differ considerably in interprovincial migration. For instance, 3,175 more people left the Montreal CMA to settle outside Quebec than those who settled in Montreal from other provinces. By contrast, 4,381 more persons settled in the Vancouver CMA than those who left for other provinces. The net interprovincial flow into the Toronto CMA was just 284 persons.
The Calgary and Alberta CMAS had a net increase in population from intraprovincial and interprovincial migration, but, unlike other populous cities, the number of births was at least twice as large as the numbers of deaths. In the Montreal CMA, birth numbers were only 27 per cent higher than deaths.
A CMA is a constellation of Census Subdivisions (CSD) or municipalities, but the suburbanization of the population can also be observed at the individual municipal level.
The City of Toronto’s population growth rate during 2019 and 2020 was 0.84 per cent, compared to 3.42 per cent in the neighbouring municipality of Brampton, and 4.08 per cent in Milton, slightly further west. Surprisingly, the growth rate in Mississauga, home to Canada’s largest airport, was 0.61 per cent, lagging behind Toronto.
The lure for more space, cheaper rents and lower housing prices are cited as reasons for the outflow of people from populous and centrally located cities. These trends are likely to continue in 2021, given that the vaccine rollout still faces logistical constraints.
What is not reported in the recent Statistics Canada’s report is the massive suburbanization of employment. Previous data released by the agency showed that almost 40 per cent of employees last spring started working from home. Many workers who commuted from the suburbs to the urban core have been increasingly working from home.
during the pandemic, the suburbanization of employment is far more extensive than the suburbanization of the population. And though suburbanizing employment could be a temporary swing, the suburbs have demonstrated their capacity to absorb residents and workers in large numbers. This has shifted the balance in the suburb’s favour.