Pandemic changing future of our politics
now the latest magic spell is wait for the vaccines. — john Robson
What a difference a year makes. On Jan. 25, 2020, the first COVID case was identified in Canada. At the time, our country’s leaders were grappling with a different crisis: blockades of rail lines and supply chains by Indigenous protesters in support of the hereditary chiefs of the Wet’suwet’en First Nation. For most Canadians, COVID-19 was a matter for China, a minor headline, possibly just another bad flu. until, of course, it wasn’t. Today, the pandemic has upended every facet of our lives. Sadly, communities which were already disadvantaged have borne the brunt of the impact. This week, Cree doctor Marlyn Cook, who works in Moose Factory, Ont., told CTV News “One of the biggest things COVID-19 is bringing out, is the racism within the healthcare system.” Meanwhile, other trends have emerged as well: a growing urbanrural exodus, and a nosedive in trust in our elected officials.
What does this new reality portend for Canadian politics? How will it shape issues in the elections to come? Here are three possible issues and the impacts they could have.
de-urbanization. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver all saw a big increase in their citizens moving to suburbs, small towns and rural areas during the pandemic, Statistics Canada reports: 87,444 people decamped from the three cities between July 2019 and July 2020, compared with an annual average of 72,686 the previous three years. Nearly a third of the increase was people aged 15 to 29; 82 per cent were people under 45, many with young families.
This will have political repercussions as these changes impact electoral districts. rural ridings could grow in importance, but their makeup will change, too. Will the exodus of city-dwellers to the burbs and beyond dilute what is currently a predominantly Conservative voter base? Or are migrating urbanites self-selected types who already broadly share the politics of their new communities? And what happens to the cities they leave behind? Will they lean further left on the political spectrum?
Trust. When the pandemic began, politicians’ ratings soared: one year later, it’s a different story. A recent survey by Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies found only 28 per cent of Albertans satisfied with Premier Jason Kenney’s pandemic response, down from 74 per cent at the start of the crisis; Ontarians’ satisfaction with Premier doug Ford declined from 75 to 53 per cent; and Quebecers’ satisfaction with their premier, François Legault, fell from 94 to 69 per cent. Meanwhile, as vaccine rollouts are slowly getting underway, nearly a quarter of Canadians lack trust in both their provincial and federal government.
This could spell trouble for all politicians, but mostly for incumbents. A loss of trust could lead to a loss of power. It could also see third or fourth parties, such as the NDP and Greens, appeal to voters on the basis that they should be trusted more than Liberal and Tory politicians who held the reins during the pandemic.
Inequality. According to a survey done by the Canadian Centre for the Purpose of the Corporation, Canadians ranked wealth inequality and inequitable treatment/ discrimination among the most significant challenges facing the world. A new report from CIBC economics warns of a “dramatic widening in the income gap” caused by COVID-19.
All parties will have to answer this call. For the NDP, it connects to plans for a wealth tax or guaranteed annual incomes. For the Liberals, it will likely serve as support for a national childcare program and a greater commitment to Indigenous issues. As for the Conservatives, leader erin O’toole is already on record as saying that “Too much power is in the hands of corporate and financial elites who are happy to outsource jobs abroad,” portending more nationalist job-creation policies. The next federal election could thus become a squeeze play on the NDP if the Tories successfully steal their “working class” mantle, and the Liberals outflank the NDP on its left.
One thing is certain: after this pandemic year, politics, like all our lives, will not be the same. We can only hope that these new challenges will spur positive change in the elections ahead.