We need to up our COVID game

It is a year now since we learned that COVID was taking root, with 294 deaths in China and 14,000 infections worldwide. When it comes to health performance and our recession, how well is Canada doing? Let’s look at some cold, hard statistics.

In terms of economic growth, Canada is subpar. The IMF estimates our economic growth was -5.5 per cent last year, compared with -4.9 per cent for all advanced countries. (Last Friday’s Statistics Canada report pegs GDP growth at a slightly better -5.1 per cent). The united States, our natural comparison country, is at -3.4 per cent. A commodity-based economy might be expected to have a deeper recession than the typical advanced country. but Australia is in many ways similar to us, and its decline was only -2.9 per cent.

Public sector deficits are another important economic indicator. They cushion losses in the short run but lead to economic strains in later years. excluding government employee pension plan deficits, the IMF estimates that our federal, provincial and local government deficits in 2020 will have been 20 per cent of GDP, higher than in any other advanced country. For all advanced countries, the average deficit is estimated at 13.3 per cent. Australia is at just 11.4 per cent.

Such large deficits result in sharp rises in public debt that later push up our bond interest rates and credit spreads. Canada’s all-government gross debt has jumped by a third from 2019 to 2020 to 116 per cent of GDP, which brings us close to the advanced-country average of 123 per cent. The u.s. is at 129 per cent — even before the new stimulus package now being debated. As for Australia, its public debt is at just 64 per cent of GDP. because of our prudent fiscal policies from the mid-1990s on, our public debt exposure is still a little better than the average, but we have clearly lost a good deal of our fiscal firepower.

Much debt growth has been to due large discretionary spending and tax relief to support locked-down populations. Canadian governments have spent so much that households were more than compensated for their lost employment income. The IMF places Canada seventh highest in additional discretionary spending and forgone revenues as a share of GDP (at 15 per cent). The highest have been New Zealand (19 per cent), the u.s. (17 per cent) and the united Kingdom (16 per cent), with Australia fifth highest at 16 per cent.

As for our Covid-related health performance, the most relevant statistic is deaths, loss of life being so heartbreaking for families and friends. As of Jan. 31, Canada’s cumulative COVID deaths per million people were 530. That’s much better than in the u.s. (at 1,333 deaths per million), the u.k. (1,587) and the european union (1,056). but it is far higher than Australia (36), Japan (45), South Korea (28) and New Zealand (5). Only Atlantic Canada has had a death rate close to the world’s best.

Our health, both economic and personal, depends on testing and vaccination. Intensive testing enables economies to open up as people can return to work and school. Vaccinations establish the herd immunity that can ultimately end the pandemic.

On these two scores, Canada is vastly underperforming. In the week of Jan. 24-31, we tested 1.6 residents per thousand people, with Alberta testing most. This is well below the u.s. at 3.8, the u.k. at 9.1. In the e.u., France is at 4.7, Italy 4.1, Spain 4.9 (as of Jan. 21) and Germany 1.8.

even though Canada has the most per capita vaccines on order in the world, it currently ranks 33rd among all countries with cumulative administered doses at only 2.5 per cent of our population. Israel tops the league at 56 per cent, followed by other large countries (the u.k. at 14.4 per cent, the u.s. at 9.4 per cent and Germany at three per cent). Some countries have not been pushing vaccinations yet because of their outstanding record in minimizing Covid-related deaths — Australia and New Zealand, for example.

unless our rate of vaccination improves rapidly, we should not expect the 70 per cent herd immunity the federal government is aiming for by early 2022. ubs has estimated that only 10 countries, including the u.s., u.k. and Israel, are on track to achieve a goal of vaccinating at least one-third of their populations in 2021. Also predicted, 10 per cent of the world’s population will be inoculated in 2021 and only 21 per cent by the end of 2022.

Perhaps, the ubs prediction is too pessimistic. yet, many countries’ vaccination programs, including Canada’s, are threatened by production problems and vaccine nationalism. because of slowdowns in production of both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, Canada’s vaccination rate dropped to .06 per cent of the population this past week. The european union has threatened to start limiting exports, including to Canada. The good news is the potential arrival of new vaccines — from Novavax, Johnson & Johnson and other producers — though these have not been approved yet and we don’t know when Canada will get delivery after approval. even without COVID variants, the pandemic has some way to go, which is why testing, and other health interventions remain critical.

So, how have we done? Mediocre at best. And if vaccines and testing remain slow, our economy will suffer further. It is time for Canada to up its game. Lives depend

SO, HOW HAVE WE DONE? MEDIOCRE AT BEST.