Ford Canada’s king of COVID caution
Bet on lockdown measures to be extended
Just when it looked like Ontario Premier Doug Ford had locked down the title as Canada’s most cautious pandemic politician, along comes Toronto Mayor John Tory to steal the crown. Tory’s plea to keep his city locked down for an additional two weeks is timid and illogical, even by Ontario standards.
If Toronto reopens on Monday as scheduled, it will almost certainly be in what the province calls the “grey” lockdown zone. Tory has said so himself. That means the stay-at-home order becomes a stay-at-home request and all “non-essential” retailers would be able to reopen at 25 per cent capacity. That’s not exactly a life-threatening free-for-all. Rather, it’s a modest make-good gesture from Ford, the only premier to favour big-box retailers over others.
Tory’s request that Ford not “rush” the Toronto reopening gives a whole new meaning to the word rush. Restaurants, bars, gyms, hair salons, and non-essential retail have been fully or partially closed since Nov. 25. With the exception of retail, they would stay closed under the province’s restrictions system until Toronto’s COVID numbers improve.
Ford’s reintroduction of the province’s colour-coded restrictions plan earlier this month was a slow, grudging, but appropriate return to making pandemic decisions based on facts, such as case rate, percentage of tests that are positive and the virus’s reproduction rate. Tory and his sidekick medical officer of health, Eileen de Villa, want to replace facts about what is happening with fear about what might happen.
Earlier this week, de Villa said, “I have never been as worried about the future as I am today.” Her concern is the emergence of more easily transmissible variants of the COVID-19 virus. It’s a legitimate worry, but not one that will be eliminated by delaying reopening by another two weeks.
The problem with making pandemic decisions based on fear is that fear is limitless and immeasurable. If Toronto stays locked down until March 9, as Tory and de Villa want, there will still be reasons to fear the virus variant on March 10.
What will the next layers of the argument be? When spring comes, people will be tempted to get out and socialize more. Better lock down. When summer comes, not everyone will have been vaccinated. Better lock down, just in case. Maybe things could reopen in the fall if everyone is vaccinated, but even then, you know how the virus can flare up. Better lock down.
And then there’s the economic case that Tory offered to buttress his position. “There is no point in reopening if we are just going to have to close again. I don’t think there is anyone who would vote for that,” the mayor said. This is a popular point with lockdown enthusiasts, who argue that the economy needs to remain locked down to avoid having to lockdown the economy. This is a circular argument with no exit ramp.
Ford is reinforcing the ability of local medical officers of health to step in quickly to impose greater restrictions than those the province mandates. This is what the province calls an
“emergency brake.” It is better than a perpetual lockdown. There was a flap this week because the rules for using the so-called emergency brake haven’t been clearly defined yet. The concern is a bit premature. In Toronto’s case, the car hasn’t even gotten on the road.
Some proponents of a longer lockdown in Toronto and Peel Region, which has made the same request, say anything less would be recklessness on Ford’s part. It’s an inaccurate depiction of a premier who has been cautious to a fault compared to his peers across the country. That is unless one includes
Atlantic Canada, which closed its borders and pretended the rest of the country didn’t exist.
Accusing Ford of recklessness is so popular that the province’s teaching unions even trotted it out to describe his wild and crazy plan to move March break to April. The argument fell flat on the grounds that it didn’t make any sense whatsoever. If the teachers think that’s reckless, they should check out Quebec. Premier Francois Legault is reopening movie theatres, arenas and indoor pools so that families can get out and enjoy them on March break.
In Toronto and Peel however, fear reigns supreme. That’s a challenge for Ford.
If he gives those communities the delay they want, it will be yet another blow to retailers who have spent money preparing for a promised opening.
The Ontario cabinet meets Friday to decide what to do. Bet on an extension of the current lockdown, even though it means the same decision will have to be faced again in two weeks. After all, Doug Ford is a cautious guy.