Pandemic to widen skill gaps at workplaces
LONDON • Tens of millions of workers in developed economies will have to retrain for secure careers in post-covid labour markets reshaped by the pandemic and the remote working revolution, a report by consultancy Mckinsey said on Thursday.
The analysis by MGI, Mckinsey’s economics research arm, concluded the pandemic’s biggest impacts will be concentrated in four work areas: leisure and travel venues; on-site customer interaction such as in retail and hospitality; computer-based office work; and production and warehousing.
Its scenarios suggested more than 100 million workers in the countries covered by the study — britain, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Spain and the united States — may need to switch occupations by 2030, up to 25 per cent more than expected pre-pandemic.
“These workers will face even greater gaps in skill requirements,” it warned, noting that job growth may concentrate more in high-wage jobs as middle- and low-wage jobs decline.
“Workers without a college degree, women, ethnic minorities, and young people may be most affected,” it added.
Other types of work — such as medical care and personal care — may see less change because there is little alternative to the high level of proximity they require.
Overall, the study found that remote work and virtual meetings are likely to continue — less extensively than at the pandemic’s peak but still with considerable knockon effects for real estate, business travel and urban centres.
Mckinsey estimated 20 per cent of business travel may not return after the pandemic as companies and workers acknowledged earlier travel for face-to-face meetings was superfluous.
“This would have a significant knock-on effect on employment in commercial aerospace and airports, hospitality, and food service,” it noted.
In the u.s. one out of every 10 workers — about 17 million, all told — will likely be forced to leave their jobs and take up new occupations by 2030, the report says.
Women, minorities, the young and the less educated will probably be the hardest hit by what consultant firm Mckinsey foresees in a new report as an unprecedented hallowing out of low-wage work in retail, hospitality and other industries.
“COVID is a big disrupter,” Susan Lund, a Washington-based partner at Mckinsey Global Institute, the consultant’s research arm, said in an interview.
“The forces COVID-19 unleashed mean there could be a lot less demand for front line workers in food service, retail, hospitality, entertainment,” Lund said.
That prompted Mckinsey to lift its pre-pandemic estimate of how many u.s. workers will need to change occupations by 28 per cent, or 3.8 million, to 17 million.