Tories must resist deficit hawk trap

In 2021, It’s About

making suicide

mainstream.

— de Souza

Last week, the National Post ran a story on a few different reports that all drew the same conclusion: long-term, Canada’s current debt path is unsustainable. This is true for governments around the world, but especially here in Canada, given who is at the helm. In the last two elections, the Liberal party ran on plans to rack up moderate deficits to fund policy priorities like infrastructure development. Predictably, the deficits were never moderate, and the infrastructure rollout lags far, far behind what was promised.

Given the eye-popping debt numbers, it will be very tempting for Conservatives to step into the trap set for them, but if they want to win the next election, the Tories need to resist the temptation to rail against deficits when there is no public appetite for fiscal hawkishness. Instead, they should focus on failed, money-wasting Liberal initiatives, and tell Canadians how they would go about creating jobs and making our economy more competitive.

The Liberal campaign strategy of effectively neutralizing the NDP threat on the left and making Conservatives explain what they would slash-and-burn has been extraordinarily effective. As a result, not only has spending shot up like a hockey stick, but the government has very little to show for it.

When you take fiscal responsibility off the table and there is no control on delusions of grandeur, you end up with results like the government’s bungled supercluster program — an attempt to drive innovation by matching universities with corporate interests by throwing money at them and hoping for the best. According to the Parliamentary budget Officer, the expensive gambit wound up only creating 14 jobs for every $1 million spent.

As COVID-19 continues to take its toll, governments are pouring money into their economies, desperately trying to create financial bridges for individuals, families and businesses to get to the other side of the pandemic. Politicians are developing new programs on the fly and the last thing on the mind of the average Canadian is the long-term fiscal impact they will have. As deficits get even further out of control, the Liberals will tell Canadians once again that we’ve got to spend money to make money.

It’s easy to see why Conservatives are tempted to default to the ideas and rhetoric that were so successful in days gone by. At the end of the last century, Conservative politicians around the world successfully educated the public about the perils of excess government spending and were able to beat back overinflated governments and provided relief for overtaxed citizens.

but our social and economic challenges have changed dramatically over the last 30 years, and our political rhetoric must change, as well. The pandemic only serves to heighten these changes. As the second wave drags on, data are confirming what we all felt anecdotally to be true — income inequality is increasing.

Middle-class and wealthy Canadians are doing better financially than ever before. They are working from the comforts of their own homes, spending less, saving more and investing in real estate and capital markets, driving home prices up and sending stock prices soaring. Meanwhile, low-income Canadians are either risking their health as essential workers, taking on precarious, temporary employment, or are out of work entirely.

As the country’s challenges evolve, the left’s solutions are failing Canadians. Support programs meant to be temporary are simply being extended, delaying any plans to help individuals and businesses sustain themselves once again. One-size-fits-all social programs like universal childcare and market-ignorant innovation policy like the supercluster plan all cry out for alternative proposals.

Conservatives should focus on offering a contrasting approach that retrains workers who have lost their jobs, provides flexible support for families to choose their own childcare options and includes industrial policies that build up crucial supply chains, in order to meet the challenges of a competitive global economy. The Tories’ message to Canadians should be that a Conservative government will help them adapt to a transitioning economy, not that they should patiently await the trickle-down benefits of fiscal prudence.

Conservatives planning for upcoming elections (or even just the next question period) will be very tempted to jump at the opportunity to reuse an old script that they can all rehearse from memory. It’s an understandable temptation.

Former prime minister Stephen Harper, a thoughtful pragmatist for much of his political career who was willing to run a small deficit to stimulate the economy during the last financial crisis, succumbed to this temptation in 2015 when he mocked Justin Trudeau for planning to run “teeny” deficits. Harper was right, of course, but what about that message made Canadians want to vote Conservative?

Following this instinct plays into the Liberal party’s strategy and, more importantly, it lets down Canadians who want to hear about the Conservative party’s plan to rebuild our precarious economy.

I am hopeful that Conservative Leader erin O’toole and his team are attempting to build a well-rounded platform to present Canadians with a hopeful alternative to the current government, but as we approach the next federal election, it will be tempting to beat the old fiscal hawk drum.

The Liberals want the next election to be a choice between support for Canadians and the tough medicine of deficit reduction. Let’s not make it easy for them.

Ginny Roth is the national practice lead for government relations at Crestview Strategy and a longtime conservative activist who previously worked at Queen’s Park and as party organizer for the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario.