Matthews, Mcdavid pull ahead in the race for MVP
Auston Matthews, the 23-year-old centre for the Toronto Maple Leafs, has asserted himself in this season’s MVP race. He has scored a league-leading 18 goals through his first 19 games of the season with points in 17 of those contests. However, his impact extends well beyond goal production.
Matthews is winning 53 per cent of his faceoffs and has already been credited with 23 hits, 20 blocked shots and 18 take-aways, hallmarks of a solid game in all three zones. Toronto has also outscored opponents 25-17 with a 75-57 edge in high-danger scoring chances (shots originating from the slot or crease) with Matthews on the ice.
“He’s playing at a different level right now,” teammate Alex Kerfoot told The Sporting News this month. “It’s fun to watch . ... I don’t have any more adjectives other than what you guys have probably been using, but yeah, he’s playing at an elite, elite level.”
However, Matthews is not alone on that level. Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor Mcdavid is firmly in the MVP conversation, too. The former Hart winner leads all NHL skaters with 25 assists, 38 points and 1.8 points per game over 21 games. And he’s only been held scoreless four times this season. Plus, he’s the only skater on pace for at least 100 points this season. And yes, that’s despite the 56-game schedule.
“He’s the best player in the world,” teammate Josh Archibald said of Mcdavid when speaking to the CBC. “It’s fun to watch him, let alone play with him . ... The guy can skate like the wind but, at the same time, his hands are as fast as his feet.”
Leading the league in goals or points puts you on the fast track for a Hart Trophy. Since 1998-99, 16 out of the 21 eventual Hart winners have been either a centre or wing who led the NHL in either goals (Maurice Richard Trophy) or points (Art Ross Trophy). The only two exceptions since 2005-06, the start of the salary cap era, are goaltender Carey Price in 2015 and forward Taylor Hall in 2018.
Other skaters being considered are Mcdavid’s line mate Leon Draisaitl, Matthews’ running partner Mitch Marner and Patrick Kane (Chicago Blackhawks). Draisaitl is second among NHL scorers with 33 points in 21 games, with four game-winners and points in all but five contests.
Edmonton also outscores opponents 14-6 at even strength when Draisaitl skates without Mcdavid. Marner, not Matthews, leads Toronto in scoring (30 points) and he is tied with Mcdavid for the league lead in even-strength points (21). Kane has helped keep the Blackhawks’ playoff hopes alive by producing eight goals with 18 assists (26 points) in 19 games, putting him among the league’s top 10 scorers.
A nonconventional candidate like goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) also has some merit and his season so far stands up against Carey Price’s 2014-15 campaign, the year he won the Hart. Vasilevskiy has a comparable save percentage (.931) and a higher rate of quality starts (71 per cent), those where he provides an average save rate or better, to Price during his MVP year (.933 and 59 per cent, respectively). Vasilevskiy also doesn’t have any starts where his save percentage was 85 per cent or below. Price had six such starts by the end of 2014-15.
However, all those second-tier candidates are still behind Matthews and Mcdavid in terms of overall value this season.
Mcdavid has been credited with 14.5 goals created, a metric that gives credit for goals and assists relative to the team, which is more than Matthews (12.9 goals created). The two are closer in Hockey Reference’s points shares (4.2 for Mcdavid and 3.7 for Matthews), an estimate of the number of standings points contributed by a skater both offensively and defensively. The other three trail by a wide enough margin to separate them from the conversation when talking about who should be this year’s MVP. Draisaitl is third in goals created with 11.8 and third in point shares with 3.2.
Trying to figure out whether Matthews or Mcdavid is more worthy of the honour is difficult. Both have operated at a high level with a significant impact on their team’s prospects for winning. It might come down to which team wins the North, a situation that currently leans toward Toronto and thus favours Matthews. And if Matthews is somehow able to pull off the coveted 50 goals in 50 games that, too, should swing the pendulum in his favour. That’s a tall order, however. Only Maurice Richard, Mike Bossy, Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and Brett Hull are part of that exclusive club, and it’s a long shot Matthews joins them this year. Still, his season is certainly worthy of celebration, we just need to wait and see how much.