Is time running out for Taiwan?
These are tense times to be on the front lines of democracy. Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone have left the island’s residents feeling under siege — besides the 15 planes that entered Taiwanese airspace earlier this week, a Chinese aircraft carrier is carrying out what are called “routine exercises” close to the island.
Taiwan’s military “won’t stand a chance,” if China chooses to invade, an unnamed source told the Chinese state news service Global Times on Friday.
The Taiwanese foreign minister, Joseph Wu, sent out a diplomatic mayday to other democracies on Wednesday, saying his country would defend itself “to the very last day,” if need be.
While the Biden administration has reiterated that its commitment to Taiwan is “rock solid,” Canada has been careful not to offend the Chinese. I asked the department of Global Affairs whether the government of Canada condemns such incursions and whether it is concerned about Chinese aggression in the region. The response was so conciliatory, it made it sound as if Taipei has been violating China’s sovereignty too.
“Canada urges all parties to refrain from actions that undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and to avoid moves that alter the status quo,” the statement said. “Canada continues to support constructive efforts that will contribute to peace, stability and peaceful dialogue across the Taiwan Strait. We are following the situation in the region very closely.”
J. Michael Cole, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-laurier Institute, who is based in Taipei, said the government’s cautious tone creates a false moral equivalence.
“One wishes that Ottawa would have the clearness of mind to acknowledge that only one side threatens war, and only one side engages in highly dangerous brinkmanship, and that it is that regime, not both of them, which needs to be singled out and called upon to de-escalate,” he said.
So far there is no panic in Taiwan, Cole said.
“In fact, the general public seems to believe that Beijing would not take that one extra step to war,” he said. “Although there is undoubtedly a psychological warfare component to this activity, it nevertheless increases the risks of miscommunication and accidents, which could then quickly spiral out of control. The increasingly belligerent exercises, added to similarly hostile rhetoric emanating from Beijing, also signal that the Chinese leadership is bent on escalation.”
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait are higher than they have been in nearly a quarter of a century — hospitals in Taiwan are planning mass casualty drills and Taipei is conducting computerized war games this week to simulate a Chinese invasion.
China-watchers suggest the risk-calculation has changed in Beijing. Having neutralized Hong Kong, China has turned its eyes on Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province. To many Chinese, reunification is a sacred mission and has high support, even if achieved militarily.
China’s leaders talked about a “peaceful” process until last May, when the word was dropped. It was later reinstated but the move suggests that Xi Jinping’s patience with non-belligerent methods has run out. The Chinese president has declared reunification “inevitable.”
Xi sees himself as a man of destiny and there are fears he could be swayed by hubris and strident ultranationalism.
But most observers consider him a rational actor who could be dissuaded from invading, if the costs were clearly higher than the benefits. Canada’s ability to influence events militarily is limited. The frigate HMCS Ottawa did sail through the Taiwan Strait, to the chagrin of the Chinese, in fall 2019, as part of an operation aimed at pressuring North Korea.
But it has proven in recent months, with the co-ordination of the declaration on arbitrary detention that was signed by 58 countries, that it carries diplomatic clout.
Guy Saint-jacques, a former Canadian ambassador to China, said Ottawa has been “pretty muted” in its defence of “a vibrant democracy.”
He urged the federal government to make a statement in support of Taiwan that makes clear the consequences of invasion. “But time is running out,” he said.
The chances that Beijing will resort to force before the end of the decade are considered high by the Pentagon.
The commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Admiral John Aquilino, said at his nomination hearing last month that in his opinion, “this problem is much closer to us than most think.”
Beijing may have hoped that the incoming Biden administration would cede influence over Taiwan to China. But President Joe Biden has made clear he will remain engaged in the region. “We will stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security and values in the Indo-pacific region — and that includes deepening our ties with democratic Taiwan,” said a State Department release.
The U.S. has no legally binding security guarantee agreement with Taiwan, as it has with Japan, and has acknowledged a “one China” policy since the 1970s.
But the Americans are aware that confidence in the U.S. among its Asian allies would be shattered were China to invade. It would also expose Japan militarily, given Taiwan’s pivotal geographic position.
The U.S. has followed a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” making it purposely vague whether it would come to the island’s aid in the event of an attack.
U.S. analysts think China has the firepower to take over the island of 24 million people. Beijing’s defence budget is 25 times that of Taiwan, it has six times as many warships and six times as many planes.
But China also has to consider the implications were the U.S. to join in. The U.S. and its allies would inevitably block sea lanes to cut off Chinese imports and exports, while Biden has the option of expelling China from dollar-based trading systems if it attacked Taiwan. (Opponents of freezing China out of the global payments system warn such a move could backfire, if Beijing retaliated and sold off its stock of $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bills.)
But the prospect of such mutually assured disaster is not imminent, according to Taiwanese sources, who would likely have advanced warning of an invasion from satellite reconnaissance. They point to Xi sending his personal condolences to the families of the 48 victims of last week’s train derailment, as a sign that hostilities are not pending, despite the rhetoric.
While the danger is greater than it used to be and the risks of accidental escalation are high, many Taiwanese do not think the timing is optimal for Xi, who has the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party this July, the Winter Olympics in Beijing next February and the 20th party congress, at which he is seeking a third term, in October 2022.
U.S. allies whose fate is tied to events in the Taiwan Strait are urging calm.
Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga is set to visit Washington next week for faceto-face talks with Biden in an effort to cool tensions in the region.
He is hoping to promote a “free and open Indo-pacific,” based on the rules-based order, as a counterweight to China’s antagonism. It is an effort Canada should endorse.
Cole said that the international community needs to spell out the consequences so that Beijing calculates along rational lines and does not engage in adventurism.
“We can’t leave the (Chinese Communist Party) guessing, even less encourage it to conclude that it could get away with an assault against Taiwan,” he said.
“One moment of inattention, and the outcome could be catastrophic for Taiwan.”