Ford did follow science
Very little gap between Ford and advisers
People can fairly criticize Ontario Premier Doug Ford for being too slow to take recent scientific advice. They can fairly criticize him for going too far in acting on that advice. What they can’t fairly criticize him for is ignoring the advice all together.
The idea that Ford is so anti-science that he not only fails to take scientific advice but goes out of his way to do the opposite is rapidly becoming part of the Ford folklore, but it’s not true. The gap between what the premier announced last Friday and the recommendations of scientists is remarkably narrow, a fact overshadowed by some of the headline-grabbing over-reach in Ford’s announcement last week.
Let’s compare what Ford did to what the provincial science advisory panel said should be done in a strongly worded set of recommendations it made public this week.
First, only essential indoor workplaces should remain open. OK, but that’s already been done. In fact, it was done in the hot spots of Toronto and Peel months ago. The scientists say only “truly essential” workplaces should stay open, but they avoid tackling the tricky decision of what constitutes truly essential.
A far more useful recommendation would have been for the province to follow the lead of medical officers of health in Toronto and Peel, who will order businesses with five or more linked cases in the past two weeks to shut down for 10 days. During that time, workers will have to self-isolate. Good idea, but not one suggested by the provincial panel of experts.
The science panel wants more vaccines for hot spots and essential workers. The government has agreed to do this. Again, the tough part is deciding who not to help so more of the limited supply can go where it would be most effective. The province’s primary approach has been to vaccinate based on age. It’s not perfect, but older people do have the highest mortality rate, as scientists have often pointed out.
The scientists recommend limiting mobility, including “restricting movement into the province.” Ford took that advice too, and it backfired. In Ottawa, police pretty much gave up on enforcing the government-mandated border checks after one day of massive traffic jams at the city’s bridges.
Most of the mistakes Ford made last Friday were part of the attempt to limit mobility, as the scientists had requested. An order to question people just because they were out moving around was rightly rejected by police services across the province, but it was supposed to give weight to the stay-at-home order scientists had been calling for.
Closing outdoor recreational facilities, including golf courses and, infamously, playgrounds was also about mobility. It’s difficult to persuade people to stay home if you say that it’s OK to golf.
Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, cochair of the science advisory group, asked for three things last week: the province needed a six-week shutdown; tougher public health measures; and a new focus on vaccinating essential workers and others in hot spots. Ford delivered all three.
The only significant gap between Ford and his science advisers was over paid sick leave for people who have, or think they have, COVID. Ford closed that gap Thursday with a promise of the best plan in the country, a supplement to a federal program. Ford won’t have to work too hard to have the best plan. From all the criticism, one would think every other province has paid COVID sick leave, but only Quebec and P.E.I. offer such programs.
While we are talking about the province’s science advisers, where were they on closing and reopening schools? It’s one of the most important decisions the government had to make, but the science table has no recommendation beyond a general preference for keeping schools open. The schools decision should be left up to the scientific expertise of the ministry of education and public health officials, the science advisers say.
In his emotional press conference Thursday, Ford referred to the science advisers predicting that cases could hit 15,000 a day and said, “That puts a scare into you.” The scientists have perfected putting a scare into the premier, but when he overreacts, they own some of the responsibility. It’s about time they accepted it.
They might also want to emphasize their prediction last week that current vaccine rates and public health measures will start to move case numbers down by the end of April. That’s an important piece of good news lost in the Ford controversy and it must be true, because scientists said so.