Who’s not following the science now?

After over a year of uncertainty and sacrifice, the pandemic is finally coming to an end. Most people are hopeful, but there is a sizable contingent of progressives who see lockdowns as an expression of their political identity and continue to advocate for harsh restrictions, even when they’re not necessary. As Canada completes its vaccination campaign and reopens its economy, it will be important to curtail this group’s influence.

Excessive partisanship has been one of this pandemic’s great tragedies, consistently undermining evidence-based policy-making to everyone’s detriment.

THE PANDEMIC IS STILL A USEFUL WEDGE ISSUE. — ADAM ZIVO

Attention has been focused on how conservatives tend to underestimate the risks of COVID-19, but data show that progressives are subject to their own biases, as well. Rather than trivializing COVID, they tend to catastrophize it.

If you want a concrete example of progressive bias, consider that progressives tend to grossly overestimate how often COVID-19 infections result in hospitalization. In the United States, a recent Gallup survey showed that only 10 per cent of Democrats correctly guessed the hospitalization rate, compared to 26 per cent of Republicans.

To be fair, most people overestimated the hospitalization rate, regardless of where they fell on the political spectrum, with a majority thinking that the virus hospitalizes at least 20 per cent of its victims (the actual number is between one and five per cent). However, after accounting for this, Democrats still have a noticeable habit of exaggerating the dangers. Similarly, Democrats were more likely to overestimate the risk to young people.

Though most people tend to overestimate risks, these numbers suggest that Americans on the left are more likely to overestimate the risks posed by the pandemic, and this can be clearly seen in their policy preferences. Research that specifically examines progressive biases in Canada is lacking, but it’s possible to make extrapolations.

A study published in the Canadian Journal of Political Science last May suggested that Canadians are less divided about COVID-19, owing to the consensus among our political leaders about the virus’ dangers, but that “partisanship still affects political assessments related to COVID.” Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the progressive bias we see south of the border has at least some effect on left-leaning Canadians.

The existence of this progressive bias can be partially attributed to Trumpian politics. Presiding over a national emergency that he lacked the leadership skills to manage, U.S. President Donald Trump politicized the pandemic, minimizing its dangers and pulling it into the muck of America’s culture wars.

Taking the bait, Americans pulled back into their partisan camps, reflexively supporting or opposing pandemic restrictions based on how they felt about Trump. For many progressives, supporting public health restrictions became a partisan necessity.

This is a legacy that has continued post-trump, as the pandemic is still a useful wedge issue for many politicians. In Florida, for example, Republican state senators blocked legislation that would have prohibited schools from banning vaccinated teachers from working. Pandering to the worst of their base, the senators legitimized dangerous conspiracy theories insinuating that vaccinated individuals pose a health risk to those around them.

In this context, it’s no surprise that some progressives have been committed to seeing the worst in things, despite evidence to the contrary. Research has shown that, with appropriate precautions, inschool learning may be safe. Though returning kids to school is contentious, it is at least worth discussing, especially given that 70 per cent of youth have reported deteriorating mental health due to remote learning and isolation.

Instead, parents who support reopening schools report being ridiculed and silenced; teachers unions in Massachusetts

and Washington state have even gone as far as to accuse those who want to reopen schools of being “white supremacists.” Instead of allowing constructive debate, some progressive school administrators preoccupy themselves with hygiene theatre: reopening schools is off-limits, but investment in extravagant sanitation infrastructure, such as UV disinfection units, is seen as perfectly reasonable.

Other examples of bad policies include restricting outdoor activities (such as closing beaches and playgrounds) and pushing for outdoor mask usage, despite overwhelming evidence showing that outdoor transmission is incredibly rare. While the rise of more dangerous variants has complicated risk calculations, their impact seems overblown. Outdoor activities remain safe, continue to account for a small minority of new cases and ought to be exempt from onerous public health restrictions.

Progressive hygiene theatre also includes extending lockdowns beyond their shelf life and stigmatizing jurisdictions that carefully open up early. Just look at the widespread condemnation, including accusations of “neanderthal thinking” by President Joe Biden, after Texas lifted its pandemic restrictions. Despite all the progressive rhetoric, cases have continued to drop in the Lone Star State.

This type of hyper-vigilance was useful earlier in the pandemic. When health-care systems were buckling and the virus wasn’t well understood, being overly cautious was the prudent thing to do. In retrospect, we know that it was silly to Lysol our groceries, but when in doubt, it’s sometimes better to be safe than sorry.

Conservative misconceptions — about mask efficacy, vaccine safety, asymptomatic transmission, fatality rates and so on — were the danger at that time, as they undermined public health compliance when it was needed the most. But now, the situation has changed.

As things return to normal, it will be important to ensure that reopening plans are governed by science, rather than fear. It will be crucial to find ways to communicate with people who feel the need, consciously or not, to cultivate the pessimism that has provided so many doomers with easy moral, social and political capital.

Thankfully, relative to Americans, Canadians aren’t as bitterly divided by political tribe. And in Canada, there is not such a clear divide between the restrictions imposed by provincial governments of different political stripes.

Ontario and Manitoba, which are both run by Conservative governments, have tried to impose unscientific, overreaching restrictions on outdoor activities: Ontario temporarily closed playgrounds, while Manitoba continues to push for more outdoor mask usage. Meanwhile, British Columbia’s NDP government has been notably laissez-faire about outdoor dining. Compared to the United States, it’s the opposite of what you’d expect.

We’re also not as far down the road with vaccinations as the Americans are, with many parts of the country still in the tail end of a third wave. Relative to the U.S., our experiences are behind schedule. Progressive over-vigilance is not a major problem for us yet, but it’s likely something we’ll have to start grappling with in the coming weeks and months. Maybe a successful American reopening will nip that in the bud, but, if not, it’s better to start thinking about solutions now rather than later.