Fourth wave could ease in coming weeks, Tam says
Outbreak has ‘dropped out of a growth pattern’
OTTAWA • Canada’s latest COVID-19 wave could decline in the coming weeks with increasing numbers of Canadians now vaccinated against the coronavirus, a top medical official said on Friday, citing longer-term forecasts.
Theresa Tam, chief public health officer, told reporters that the rate of transmission across Canada was now below one, indicating the current outbreak had “dropped out of a growth pattern at the national level.”
The new modelling released on Friday shows an average of more than 3,700 new daily cases being reported across the country this week, a far better situation compared to the more than 8,500 daily cases the country was initially projected to hit by mid-september.
It’s the first time since July that the pandemic does not appear to be in a growth pattern for the country, Tam said. “The curve is just bending.”
Public health measures reimposed in August and September to halt the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus had helped bend the curve, she said.
Another reason for the drop is the increasing number of people who have been inoculated. As of Oct. 4, almost 81 per cent of Canadians above age 12 were fully vaccinated.
“The longer-range forecast suggests that, at current levels of transmission, the fourth wave could decline in the coming weeks,” Tam said.
Although the national struggle against COVID-19 is looking up, provinces are still immersed in their own challenges.
Public Health Agency data show those hit hardest were ones that eliminated rules on mask wearing and gathering sizes too quickly while not enough of the population was fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
“Infection rates are exceedingly high in several areas of the country. With the increased severity of the Delta variant, this wave is making more people very sick, resulting in a heavy strain on the health system,” Tam said.
Alberta, followed by Saskatchewan, have the highest rate of active cases out of all the provinces. Officials in both places have spent the past several weeks trying to shore up hospital resources and introducing vaccine passport programs in hopes of incentivizing those not yet immunized to roll up their sleeves.
“I guess time will tell as to whether individual provinces have learned from the fourth wave while the vaccine coverage is increasing,” Tam said. “You can’t just rely on the vaccinations alone.”
The health agency’s modelling warns Canada faces the risk of another COVID-19 surge later in the fall and winter if restrictions like masking and physical distancing are not maintained while vaccination rates are not higher.
Six million eligible Canadians are not fully immunized. Vaccination coverage is lower in the younger age groups, leaving a significant protection gap, said Tam.
Canada unveiled one of the world’s strictest vaccine mandate policies on Wednesday. It will place unvaccinated federal employees on unpaid leave and require COVID-19 shots for air, train and ship passengers.
Heading into Thanksgiving, Tam and Dr. Howard Njoo, deputy chief public health officer, advised people to only gather indoors with family members and friends who have been fully vaccinated and open a window to improve ventilation.
They recommend those who are not immunized to stick to gathering with their own household and consider moving the gathering outdoors.
People should ask their guests whether they have been vaccinated and “take that into account,” Tam said, acknowledging that may feel difficult.
“I’ve had conversations with friends who are having a tougher time with especially members of their family who are not vaccinated at all or are only partially vaccinated,” Njoo added.
Official data show 28,141 Canadians have died from COVID-19 since the pandemic started last year.