Should Tories break up with Alberta?
Perhaps it’s time for the Conservative party to part ways with Alberta. Sit down on the couch, engage in a frank discussion about the relationship, and agree that it’s no longer working out the way both parties had hoped. While they enjoyed many happy years as partners, the sad fact is that their interests have evolved in such a way that neither is getting the satisfaction they once did.
It need not be a hostile breach. Better to remain friends, treasure the past and move on, sharing those interests they retain while wishing one another the best of luck in those they don’t.
Neither side needs the separation to be ugly. Certainly not the federal Tories, who will continue to need the broad support they enjoy across the Prairies if they hope to recover from the disappointing results of the recent election. The problem is that the eagerness to keep racking up massive victories in Western ridings has developed into a dependence on the side of the party, along with a set of expectations on the side of the voters that is unhealthy for both sides.
Of the two, the need for a change is arguably greater for the feds. The simple fact is that rendering itself forever beholden to Western interests has become a liability — particularly so in the case of Alberta, but to a lesser extent as well in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Erin O’toole’s biggest struggle as leader has been in retaining the support of the true believers while making inroads into the more centrist interests of Eastern provinces, especially Ontario. That’s his own fault: he ran as a “True Blue” Tory to secure the leadership, then made an obvious and unexpected left turn once he won. He wasn’t necessarily wrong in making the turn from a strategic point of view, but he handled it so clumsily he upset his supporters without winning over many new converts.
So federal Conservatives have a choice. They can launch themselves into a bitter internal battle that pits one wing against another, or they can continue trying to transform the party in ways needed to bring in extra votes. They set the stage for the decision last week when the caucus armed itself with the ability to remove O’toole if it desires. That doesn’t mean it will kick him out, just that it can if it wants to once a few more weeks of grumbling and wrangling have passed.
Whatever it decides, the main issue facing the future leader remains the same. Canada is changing, quite drastically in some regards. Do the Tories wish to change with it, or hunker down as a right-wing version of the New Democrats, fated to a safe and secure place on opposition benches?
Like it or not, many of the positions that cost the party crucial votes lead straight back to its right flank. The broad mass of Canadians may not like a carbon tax, but have accepted it as a reality. They may oppose the lack of any sort of abortion law, but don’t want to fight about it, and recognize that doing so is a losing battle. They may feel uncomfortable with some aspects of LGBT culture, but don’t feel it’s their business to dictate. And they see no reason to continually defend gun enthusiasts seized by their right to own the latest in lethal weaponry.
Conservatives tried the True Blue option once before, when an authentic Western-based populist party, Reform, emerged in the wake of the Mulroney years. The result was a decade of Liberal majorities before Reform disbanded and Conservatives went back to trying to win some seats east of Manitoba. The lesson of that decade of defeat was obvious. The agenda that motivates the most conservative elements of the Conservative party isn’t shared widely enough to get the party elected. Stephen Harper may have managed the juggling
act for a time, but he did so with the help of a pair of unexciting and ill-equipped Liberal leaders heading a tired and vacuous party, and Quebec’s brief fling with Jack Layton’s New Democrats, a torrid affair that quickly flamed out and isn’t likely to be revived.
So an accommodation has to be reached. If Conservatives want to broaden their support and make sure it lasts longer than an election or two, they’re going to have to risk losing some Western voters in order to do it. They have to decide who they are and what they stand for as a party, then they have to develop policies that appeal to conservative-minded urban voters without frightening them off with babble about the right to own guns and refuse vaccinations.
Liberals once dominated Quebec to the same degree Conservatives dominate the West. Then the Bloc came along to gobble up ridings and cut them down to size. They adapted and survived. Conservatives must do the same, and it may be that events are opening the way to do just that.
It’s been years since Albertans had a Tory premier they really liked. Ed Stelmach, Alison Redford, Jim Prentice … they (mostly) won elections, but not many hearts. By the time Jason Kenney came along the Conservative brand was so tattered he retired it altogether and replaced it with a United Conservative alternative that is largely a personal vehicle and anything but united. Without him its very existence comes into question. When Rachel Notley’s NDP defeated Prentice it was seen by some as no more than a temporary accident of history, but Kenney’s calamitous rule makes a second NDP kick at the can look increasingly likely. And this time voters may be a lot tougher to win back; there are only so many times you can repackage a party and sell it as new.
So Alberta itself looks rife for change. If not for COVID it would be enjoying the fruits of rebounding oil prices, and yet another chance to avoid blowing the benefits. Those voters who aren’t inclined to join Max Bernier’s party of cranks may be open to something slightly more nuanced. That doesn’t mean making Conservatism a twin sister of Liberalism. Canada didn’t find itself with another Liberal government because it loves Justin Trudeau; it opted reluctantly for a Liberal minority because too many people weren’t sure what Conservatives stood for.
Removing that uncertainty should be the first order of business. It may mean a few lost seats in a few Western ridings, or slightly less gargantuan margins of victory in others. It’s a risk, but rewards seldom come without risk. When a marriage isn’t working, it’s usually best to admit it and move on.
THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY TIMES YOU CAN REPACKAGE A PARTY.