OTTAWA’S NEW DIRECTION ON CHINA
Language hints to a shift: analysts
A throne speech promise to improve diplomatic relations in the Indo-pacific and Arctic regions is a sign of a new foreign policy direction by the Liberal government, say analysts.
Even the use of the term Indo-pacific is a signal that the government intends to work more closely with allies to counter China’s growing influence, they said.
The speech is confirmation that the government’s new Indo-pacific strategy is being worked out, said former ambassador to China Guy Saint-jacques.
“The only way forward to deal with a large superpower that does not play by international rules, when it doesn’t see that it’s to its advantage, is to counter that by working more closely with partners,” he said.
In the throne speech Tuesday, the government pledged to “continue working with key allies and partners, while making deliberate efforts to deepen partnerships in the Indo-pacific and across the Arctic.”
It said a “changing world requires adapting and expanding diplomatic engagement.”
Paul Evans, a professor at the school of public policy and global affairs at the University of British Columbia, said the use of the term Indo-pacific, as opposed to Asia-pacific, indicates a new approach.
“This is not only about bringing India and the Indian Ocean into perhaps greater emphasis in Canadian activities, but Indo-pacific as a frame is essentially a response to the rise of Chinese influence and power,” he said.
He said the government faces a series of decisions involving China that it will have to make quickly. That includes a decision on whether to ban Huawei equipment from Canada’s 5G networks, and how to handle the upcoming Olympics in Beijing.
“There are questions on the doorstep that are going to need answers. And this particular passage, in the throne speech, gives us a sort of hint which way the weather pattern might be developing,” he said.
The throne speech pledge was also a recognition that new Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly “is going to have to spend a lot of time in business class airfare flying back and forth to the Asia-pacific,” said Christian Leuprecht, a professor at the Royal Military College and Queen’s University.
“Just to show up, that will be already a good start, as opposed to sending a bureaucrat or an ambassador like we often do.”
The new U.S. ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, said during his confirmation hearing that the U.S. is waiting for Canada “to release its framework for its overall China policy.” Those comments came shortly before China released two Canadians it had kept imprisoned for three years as retaliation for Canada arresting Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on behalf of the U.S.
The release of the Two Michaels in September gave Canada more freedom to take a more critical stance against China, something the U.S. has been pushing for, while experts have said navigating relationships with China and the U.S. will be a key issue Joly will have to deal with in her new post.
The throne speech was the first indication of the route the government plans to take. Saint-jacques said it’s a “good sign that we are going to invest more and try to coordinate better with allies.” While the speech doesn’t specify what kind of additional resources the government will put toward the efforts, “at least it recognizes that the Indo-pacific and the Arctic are two regions that require more attention.”
Saint-jacques also noted expanding diplomatic engagement in a serious way involves more trips to the region. He said Canada’s efforts in the Indo-pacific are likely to target the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and possibly India.
Last week, the government announced that Canada and the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) would move ahead with negotiations on a comprehensive free trade agreement.
“We could expand lanes with ASEAN countries, and that would be a very good start,” Saint-jacques said.
Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton, said given the difficulties Canada has in its trade relationship with the United States, the “penny has dropped.” That means Canada has to get serious about diversification, and “the fastest growing economies in the world ... are in the Indo-pacific region. It’s going to take more than trade agreements to up our game there.”
Hampson added that the government’s use of the term Indo-pacific “underscores the fact that India is seen as being an important part of that new economic strategy,” while other countries Canada could be looking to deepen its relationship with include Vietnam and Indonesia.
Improving relationships in the region is going to take more than just efforts by the foreign affairs minister, but will require participation from the defence, industry and other ministers, too, as well as efforts at the deputy minister level, Hampson said.
Leuprecht said the throne speech is an acknowledgment that the Indo-pacific and Arctic regions haven’t gotten the necessary attention from the government. “I think it’s indirectly an admission that the government has to make up for lost time” in both regions, he said.