Polling suggests fierce battle for second place
New poll numbers this week did little to clear the air on what this June’s Ontario election may look like — but suggests a pitched battle is brewing for second place.
Thirty-seven per cent of decided voters in the Leger/ Postmedia poll want to give Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives a second term, while Steven Del Duca’s Liberals crept one percentage point ahead of Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, who sit at 26 and 25 per cent, respectively.
“You’re seeing a real tussle between the NDP and the Liberals for that mantle of being the alternative (to Doug Ford),” said Andrew Enns of Leger.
“We’ve seen at various times the NDP in second place, then the Liberals in second place ... that may be contributing to some of the polling fluctuation you see out there.”
The first few weeks of January saw the release of five separate polls, all with wildly different pictures of what’s on the mind of voters.
Three of the polls — Mainstreet, Abacus and EKOS — all show the PCS maintaining modest leads, while the Jan. 9 Innovative Research poll suggests a narrow Liberal Party win, and last Thursday’s Angus Reid survey suggesting decided voters want an NDP government at Queen’s Park.
These all-over-the-place numbers come as no shock to Tim Abray, a doctoral candidate and political science professor with Queen’s University.
“It’s really tough to get a handle on what people are thinking, there are so many things in the environment right now,” he said.
“Polling is tough to nail down when circumstances are changing constantly in people’s lives.”
While Abray maintains the pandemic will weigh heavily come election day, polling this far removed from the campaign tends to be influenced by what’s on the minds of respondents when quizzed by pollsters.
“It just depends on which piece of the COVID conversation is most important on that day to whoever picks up the phone,” he said.
Leger ranks feelings toward the pandemic at a statistical tie between “frustrated” and “tired,” ranking 34 and 33 per cent, respectively.
Most (52 per cent) look poorly upon the Ford Government’s plan for a safe return to in-class learning, while 26 per cent say they approve and 22 per cent were unsure of their answer.
Only 15 per cent blame elected leaders for the return of public safety measures and lockdowns during the omicron resurgence.
Most (36 per cent) blame the unvaccinated, while 21 per cent say no one’s to blame.
The shifting opinions reflected in these polls aren’t lost on those prowling the corridors of power at Queen’s Park, Abray said.
“Polls regularly swing all over the place depending on the circumstances of the day, and I think that any seasoned political operator understands that,” he said.
“They understand that a massive lead one day can turn into something else the next day, they don’t craft longer-term electoral strategies on the basis of day-today swings.”
That doesn’t mean they don’t completely ignore polls, however, but use their own internal polling as a benchmark against publicly available numbers.
Name recognition may also temper future support for the Liberals, Abray said, noting that Del Duca isn’t as prominent of a figure as are Ford and Horwath.
Del Duca, who served as transportation minister under the previous government, took over leadership of the Ontario Liberals following the resignation of former premier Kathleen Wynne, who stepped aside following her party’s devastating 2018 loss to Ford’s PCS, denying the Liberals a fifth-consecutive mandate.
Thirty-two per cent of Leger’s respondents weren’t aware of Del Duca’s name when asked, compared to four per cent who had never heard of Doug Ford, and 15 per cent unaware of Andrea Horwath.
Fifty per cent of respondents reported not knowing who Green Leader Mike Schreiner was.
Most of Ford’s support (42 per cent) comes from southwestern Ontario, followed by 40 per cent in the eastern portions of the province, 38 per cent from Toronto’s suburbs, 35 per cent in Niagara and 32 per cent from the city of Toronto.
Voters in Canada’s largest city prefer Ford, but only barely — 32 per cent, while 31 per cent prefer the Liberals, and 30 per cent the NDP.
Although most decided voters plan to vote Progessive Conservative, Ford is lagging behind Horwath in popularity — with the NDP leader judged “favourable” by 40 per cent of respondents, just ahead of Ford’s 38 per cent.
Fifty-six per cent or respondents reported an unfavourable opinion of Ford, compared to 42 per cent for Horwath.
Leger’s poll was conducted between Jan. 21 and 24 from the opinions of 1,000 random voters, with a margin of error of 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.