Raptors poised for more growth

The Toronto Raptors are an even 23-23 as they head into Game No. 47 of the season on Saturday night in Miami.

There has been no shortage of improvement on the roster, and this team is both obviously and statistically better than last season’s version that was just 18-28 at the same point on their way to the franchise’s first playoff-less season since 2012-13.

But where have they improved and by how much?

Sift through the reams of available statistical data and the overall feeling comes back that yes, the Raptors are definitely better — and perhaps more than we think if you take into account some factors like age and experience and the always tough to measure impact of injuries.

This year’s Raptors are significantly different than the group last year. Back then, with Kyle Lowry still in the fold and Scottie Barnes still doing his thing at Florida State, the Raptors were both older and a team built more around the three-point shot.

That’s not to say the threepoint shot doesn’t still play a huge role or that it won’t get back to that level in the future. But for now, the Raptors skew more toward being a team that relies on its length and athleticism to get good shots in the paint as opposed to moving the ball around and kicking it out to open shooters like it did a year ago.

Again, that is personnel-driven. Barnes is by no means a lock-down threepoint shooter, though he could become one in time, but he is a guy right now who can carve out space in the paint and get off a shot. OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam are also both players with that ability to play in the post and create space for themselves as well.

Fred Vanvleet is going to knock down threes for the Raptors for years to come as will Gary Trent Jr., but right now those are the only two Raptors hitting on them at a better than league average.

Siakam is shooting just 33 per cent from three, which is up over last year but down significantly from the previous two years, when he shot just below 36 and 37 per cent.

Anunoby is a career 37-percent three-point shooter but from behind the arc this year, he has fallen to 34.5 per cent.

For now, at least, the focus seems to be work the ball inside and score from there.

From a rebounding perspective, this team is about right where it was a year ago in pulling down rebounds off their own basket, but when it comes to the offensive boards they are light years ahead of last season. That, too, is out of necessity because it offsets the second chance opportunities the Raptors give up at the other end by being a little undersized against teams with more-traditional big men.

But if there is one area the Raptors can point to and feel very good about, it is on the defensive end. Yes, there were some issues early on but since early December — as long as you ignore the COVID stretch later in that month — the defence has been coming around nicely.

The team is giving up more than five points a game less than they did a year ago and their defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) is down as well. They continue to turn teams over at a very high clip and have improved in the steals and deflections department, with Trent Jr. and Barnes proving to be very adept in such areas along with the team’s core disrupters in Vanvleet, Siakam and Anunoby.

Offensively is where coach Nick Nurse and his staff are going to have to adapt. This team is not particularly good in the half court, which means more of a focus on pace and scoring in transition is going to have to happen.

Granted, young Raptors like Barnes and Trent Jr. and even Anunoby are going to get better and more consistent with their shot. None of the three is close to his peak and all three continue to track upward.

But perhaps the best indicator that this team is moving in a positive direction comes in the Net rating. A year ago, the Raptors were a negative in this area. To date this year, they are + 0.8, meaning they are scoring more than they are giving up on a nightly basis. The margin of improvement isn’t huge, but it is an improvement and that’s not debatable.

Give Nurse and his staff more than a handful of days at a time with his full roster and the improvement should only grow. On that front, it appears good news is coming. Vanvleet has missed the past two games with a sore knee, but was a full participant in practice, a sign point to him making his return.