Ukraine army is real goal, experts say
Navy buildup a bluff as troops deploy north
KYIV • Russia is planning a lightning advance from southern Ukraine to cut the country in half by linking with other battalions to encircle Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s army, military experts have claimed.
The strategy envisages that the buildup of Russian navy forces in the Black Sea is designed as a feint, to distract Ukrainian generals who are expecting them to launch an amphibious assault on Odesa.
Instead of attacking Odesa, the headquarters of the Ukrainian navy, the strategists believe the Russian military machine will continue to “bypass” nearby Mykolaiv by thrusting northward before heading east to target the Ukrainian army, most of which remains pinned down near Donetsk and Luhansk closer to the Russian border. If Russian generals have hatched such a bluff it means they do not consider capturing major cities as key military goals but instead want to surround the Ukrainian army to “demilitarize” the country, an objective Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, had insisted was his endgame.
The possible plan was outlined by Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) experts, Sam Cranny-evans, a research analyst, and Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow specializing in sea power. Kaushal told The Daily Telegraph any subsequent advance would not be easy for the Russians, adding: “The warship shelling of Odesa reported yesterday (Wednesday) and amphibious vessels arriving in the Black Sea in recent days suggests to me that the Russians are trying to make the feint even more believable.”
Recently, numerous amphibious landing ships have amassed in the Black Sea, alongside about 30 Russian warships and submarines.
The defence and security think-tank report, Not Out of the Woods Yet: Assessing the Operational Situation in Ukraine, suggests the “exclusive focus” on besieged cities, such as Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Mariupol, “may obscure more than it reveals.”
While Russia had initially planned a swift invasion to seize Kyiv last month, their sluggish advance, thwarted by the spirited Ukrainian defence forces, may mean generals have switched objectives and targets. The RUSI report suggests “there is a second Ukrainian centre of gravity — alluded to by Mr. Putin in his pledge to “demilitarize” Ukraine — the regular Ukrainian army, most of which remains near Donetsk and Luhansk, under the aegis of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO).”
It adds: “The position of this force (the JFO) is looking increasingly precarious as Russian forces advance to encircle it on three axes.”