Opposition leaders unaware they’re in a race
What’s up with Ontario’s NDP and Liberal parties? With a provincial election less than six weeks away, their leaders have been almost invisible in the run-up to a vote that will be critical for their futures.
Neither Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca nor NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is in an enviable position. Opinion polls show Doug Ford’s PCS with close to 40 per cent support while the other two parties are around 25 per cent each. The elections projection website 388 Canada rates the PCS’ chances of winning the most seats at 99 per cent and their chance of forming a majority at 84 per cent.
One would think that would compel Horwath and Del Duca to use the pre-election period to start laying out significant ideas and pushing them hard.
Instead, this week Del Duca was going on about a handgun ban, a policy unlikely to be respected by the criminal handgun owners who are the real problem. Horwath had one of her lieutenants complain about the legislature Easter recess being extended three days. The NDP wanted Ford to answer questions in the legislature instead of electioneering.
Del Duca accused the PCS of putting “campaigning ahead of governing.”
Folks, campaigning is what you do this close to an election. Get in the game.
Del Duca offered the further insight that the April 28 provincial budget would constitute “launching the Conservative platform.” Yes, exactly. He also suggested that “the media and public should treat it accordingly.” Unfortunately for him, they will.
You’d never know it from their conduct so far, but both Del Duca and Horwath are fighting for their political lives. Horwath has lost three elections as leader. Her party’s enormous tolerance for failure and the lack of an obvious successor have given her a fourth shot, but she must at least retain most of the party’s 39 seats and its official opposition status.
The bar is lower for Del Duca, but not much. It would be impossible for the party to get fewer than the seven seats it already holds. Liberal supporters ought to expect their party to outdo the NDP, but starting with so few MPPS is a serious disadvantage. The Liberals are running a team composed almost entirely of rookies.
Del Duca himself doesn’t hold a seat in the legislature. He will try to win back his former seat in Vaughan, but he lost it by nearly 8,000 votes last time, to PC cabinet minister Michael Tibollo. If Del Duca doesn’t win the seat, he will have a tough time hanging on to the leadership.
The best bet for both the NDP and Liberals would be a fresh, solid platform with ideas that resonate with average Ontario voters concerned about housing, affordability and the after-effects of COVID-19. The ideas they have put forth so far fall well short of that.
The problem for the Liberals is that if they start talking about deficiencies in their traditional policy areas like health and education, the PCS are bound to observe that the Liberals spent 15 years creating many of those problems.
Del Duca’s biggest announcement is what the party calls its plan for economic dignity. It’s a grab bag of small ideas aimed primarily at those having the most difficulty finding good work in a booming economy with significant labour shortages. Its signature idea is a portable benefits plan for gig workers. It’s a good idea, so much so that the PCS announced it a month before Del Duca did.
The NDP has pledged more money for mental health. Over a year ago, it released a detailed climate plan. With the federal government taking charge of climate policy in Ontario, provincial action is unlikely to rise to the top of the issues list.
Horwath has spent much of her time as opposition leader sharing her views about what a mean, stingy guy Doug Ford is. It’s a line of attack that doesn’t seem to have done her much good, but expect more of it when the campaign officially starts.
Realistically, Horwath and Del Duca are in a race for second place. Ontario needs an effective, electable opposition party to hold Ford and the PCS to account. That’s unlikely to be the NDP. It could be the Liberals, if they wake up and realize they are in a race and it’s time to start running.
Failing that, Premier Doug Ford will enjoy the luxury of being faced by two weak opposition parties, each with a leadership crisis. That would be good for Ford, not so much for Ontario politics.