The pollster versus Pierre Poilievre
Frank Graves, president and founder of EKOS Research Associates, went on the attack against Pierre Poilievre’s populist-tinged bid to become leader of the Conservative party. Unquestionably, Graves has the right to express his opinions, but his online onslaught, as head of a prominent political polling firm, only dumped fuel on the populist fire he loathes.
“Pierre Poilievre is an acolyte of authoritarian populism. This is never healthy. You are on notice. Going to make sure you are never going to lead my country. I don’t make idle threats,” Graves wrote on Twitter last week.
This was just one of many similar statements made by Graves, most of which have since been deleted. Speaking over phone and email on Wednesday, Graves struck a far more moderate and reflective tone.
“These are my personal opinions which do not affect the data I collect,” says Graves. “I should express them more temperately, or keep them to myself.”
Graves denies his personal bias seeps into EKOS’S polling data.
“You wouldn’t be in business for the amount of time I’ve been, and been as successful as I am, if you torqued your data,” he says.
Complaints in the past that he has skewed data have not been supported, but Graves’ obvious and outspoken support for the Liberals, as well as being a longtime donor, have long been used to accuse him of bias. This is an age where lines are increasingly blurred in the public eye between the personal opinions of CEOS and the conduct of their companies.
Graves says he has no personal animus towards Poilievre and respects his skills as a politician, but takes issue with the Tory leadership favourite’s willingness to tap into populist campaigning.
“My concerns are entirely focused on the issue of grounding appeal with what I have called ordered populism,” he says. “The historical evidence of the outcomes of governments who draw on these forces is extremely troubling.”
“Ordered populism,” according to Graves, is what drove Donald Trump, and Brexit, and he fears what will happen in Canada if it arrives led by Poilievre.
Another outcome that Graves predicts for a future Poilievreled Canada would be a decline in EKOS’S business with the federal government. Former prime minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were bad for polling agencies who receive public opinion research contracts with Ottawa, as his government slashed the budget for polling from $31 million in 2007, to $7 million by 2010, and even less by 2015.
Graves and the Harper government had a well-documented acrimonious relationship, and the Tories effectively accused him of being a Liberal operative. The reputation of EKOS survived and it remains a go-to polling agency. The number of federal government contracts awarded to EKOS recovered when Trudeau assumed power, and raised the federal polling budget.
But not all polling firms have benefited from the new spending regime, as EKOS competitor Angus Reid’s business with Ottawa dried up after Harper left office. Incidentally, in another social media trip up by Graves, he attacked Angus Reid president Shachi Kurl during the 2021 election campaign over how she moderated the leaders debate. Those tweets were also deleted and he posted an apology the next day.
Memorial University political scientist Alex Marland, who specializes in election campaigning and political communication, says that friendly relations between pollsters and political parties are not a new phenomenon.
“Some pollsters are more neutral than others, as some have ties to political parties,” he says.
Marland says that historically, pollsters gathered research for political parties during campaigns, and benefited from contracts postelection. Graves says none of his work was directly commissioned by a ruling party during an election, and Marland doesn’t believe Graves’s political biases have impacted EKOS’S work.
“A pollster, CEO or other public face of a research firm is not always involved in the research that skilled employees are managing in a competent, objective manner,” says Marland.
However, Graves’ recent outburst and threats against Poilievre reignited old accusations against EKOS being a Liberal asset.
One Poilievre supporter, Melissa Mbarki, tussled with Graves on Twitter. “It’s really difficult to trust an information source when the face of the organization becomes biased,” she said in an interview this week.
Mbarki, a member of Saskatchewan’s Muskowekwan First Nation who works with the Macdonald Laurier Institute, is unconvinced by the suggestion that Poilievre is unleashing a dangerous wave of populism upon the country, and believes Poilievre will help tackle longtime problems within Canada’s Indigenous communities.
“He’s the only candidate who is talking about economic development on FN reserves. The high rate of poverty is an issue that we need to address,” says Mbarki. “This ties into the cost of living and life being more unaffordable for northern Indigenous communities.”
Graves and Mbarki engaged in a fierce back-and-forth Twitter exchange over Grave’s criticisms of Poilievre, with Mbarki questioning Graves’ handling of polling data that collides with his beliefs. Graves retorted that suggestions he manipulated EKOS’S data was defamatory. To be clear, no evidence has been presented of corrupted EKOS data for partisan purposes.
Even if there is no reason to doubt the quality of EKOS polls, and there does not appear to be, promising a party leadership candidate he will never get elected is crossing a line, especially considering Graves’ considerable resources, and the fact he explicitly labelled his attacks on Poilievre as a “threat.”
SOME POLLSTERS ARE MORE NEUTRAL THAN OTHERS.