Nylander needs big finish to square rich new deal with Cup hungry fans
Lack of salary cap space and a lack of Stanley Cups are inexorably linked in Leafs Nation debate.
And expect the fret level to rise when William Nylander’s new contract is registered with the National Hockey League.
The signature won’t be dry on a reported eight-year deal in the US$11.5 million per season range before Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving is either celebrated for maintaining the Core Four or slammed for upsetting the pay scale and likely extending a 57-year Stanley Cup drought.
Nylander is viewed suspiciously by some as a one-year wonder who timed his career year meticulously.
Yet optics forced the GM to move on Nylander now, after a months-long slow dance in contract talks, during which Nylander took the team scoring lead and improved his 200-foot game.
Of course, his price went up and, as the lowest paid of the Core Four group that also includes Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner, he took the puck and skated end-to-end for big bucks.
If the pact is to be announced in the next few days, perhaps with some clever structuring to ease the cap pain, Nylander certainly put a bow on it with a threepoint game Saturday in San Jose.
The problem is that three other stars have AAVS between US$10.9 million and US$13.25 million, at least until the summer of 2025, tying up close to US$47 million on four players — even with the cap due to rise next season.
To be determined is when to launch a new contract conversation with Marner, who will be entering the last year of his current contract next season. Also, how much the club figures to save when John Tavares cashes the last of his US$11 million cheques in the summer of 2025, assuming he ends his career here.
All this chatter conveniently overlooks the fact there are three months to go until this year’s playoffs. Indeed, the halfway point of the NHL schedule is still a week away.
Unlike the past two 50win campaigns, there won’t be an easy path this time. Under Nylander’s present AAV of US$6.962 million and the current cap, it’s already a challenge to add a veteran defenceman at the trade deadline.
Once April arrives, this aforementioned quartet not only must lead the qualifying charge, but they also must overcome their own history and collectively seize the moment. Meaning they have to get beyond winning one series. That’s why there’s concern among fans over another big-ticket deal being awarded so soon.
Nylander needs to keep up his current 100-point pace and start the first round of the playoffs the way he finished the last series against Florida, bringing the fans at Scotiabank Arena to their feet.
Matthews must stay atop or near the top of the league’s goal scorers. After taking some flak for producing just eight goals in an early fall 18-game span, he’s back on pace to pot 50-60.
That leaves Marner under the most scrutiny. The allstar winger, who just missed 100 points last season, has lagged at times and coach Sheldon Keefe has felt the need to change lines in an effort to spark him.
Tavares, meanwhile, defies age as the centre for Nylander or anyone else. He’s third in the league in winning faceoffs, always a threat down low, and on track for 70-80 points again.
What can’t be avoided are injuries and ever-changing public opinion, which have never been more unpredictable.
After newcomers John Klingberg, Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi and Ryan Reaves got the royal welcome as movers and shakers, it took much longer for them to settle in and fans to embrace them. Klingberg struggled, got hurt and dropped out of sight. Reaves, also injured, is still in limbo.
The planned Ilya Samsonov/joseph Woll goal tandem currently consists of Martin Jones and Dennis Hildeby, while the autumn outcry of losing defenceman Luke Schenn and forwards Ryan O’reilly and Sam Lafferty has been reduced in part by the efforts of Simon Benoit, Domi and Noah Gregor, respectively. Benoit kept his job after filling in for the sidelined Mark Giordano and Timothy Liljegren.
Trying to stay focused above the fracas is Keefe, who once again heard media rumours of his imminent demise, usually after a night when his team took bottom feeder foes too lightly. But after one fed up fan threw their sweater on the ice a week ago after a home loss to Carolina, the Leafs have won three in California, allowing just one even strength goal in the past four games.
As with Nylander’s contract, when one Leaf drama ends, another is sure to begin.