The eye-popping price of MLB starting pitching keeps going up

TEXAS RANGERS SHOWED YOU CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MANY STARTERS

For teams that never had much chance at Shohei Ohtani, and even for those who did, the defining feature of this baseball off-season has been the frantic and expensive scramble to secure starting pitching.

From the top of the market to the bottom, the prices have been eye-popping.

A 25-year-old Japanese righty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has yet to throw a pitch in Major League Baseball received the largest guaranteed deal ever given to a starting pitcher. Frankie Montas, who has never made an all-star team and missed most of the last year and a half with major injury issues, recently secured a one-year deal worth US$16 million annually from the Cincinnati Reds. Lucas Giolito, who has shown ace capabilities at times but struggled through a difficult year in 2023, signed a deal with the Boston Red Sox that will pay him nearly $20 million in 2024.

Former Washington National Erick Fedde, who never quite figured things out in MLB then left to play in Korea for his age-30 season, returned from a strong year there to find multiple teams — some of them post-season contenders — pursuing him. Ultimately, the Chicago White Sox gave him $15 million across two years, hoping he can emerge as a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter at what is, in this market, a relatively low price.

The trade market, while largely still evolving, has not yielded many steals, either.

For example, the San Francisco Giants gave up legitimate middle-of-the-order bat Mitch Haniger and an established swingman in Anthony Disclafani for 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray. The thing about Ray, however, is that he is not able to pitch until August because of an injury, and his contract includes an opt-out after next season.

While stunning in some ways, the competitive market did not exactly surprise those looking for upgrades.

From the moment GMS convened in Scottsdale for their annual meetings a few days after the World Series, they were clear-eyed about the market and the forces pushing prices higher.

An expanded post-season means more teams are “going for it” than ever, as Baltimore Orioles GM Mike Elias put it then. Plus, the increased emphasis on high velocity and the need to hurry for the pitch clock combined to send a staggering number of starters to the disabled list last year; five good starters is no longer enough. Betting on an entire rotation to stay healthy these days amounts to negligence, particularly for teams that regularly appear in the post-season and therefore add a month’s worth of highstress innings to their starters’ arms.

The team that stockpiled starting pitching like no other last year, the Texas Rangers, ended up winning the World Series with two of the best starting pitchers of their generations unavailable due to injury. Had the Rangers signed even one less starter, or traded for one fewer at the deadline, they might have fallen off, too.

Now, with a little more than a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, the market could escalate even further.

Blake Snell, the 2023 NL Cy Young winner could command more than $200 million. Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga, who showed well against MLB stars in the World Baseball Classic but was not nearly as decorated in Nippon Professional Baseball as Yamamoto, could reasonably secure nine figures. Lefty Jordan Montgomery, who emerged as a playoff hero for the Rangers but had never before resembled an ace, could expect the same. Massive pitching contracts have always been huge gambles, rarely yielding full value for their entire extents. But in this year’s market, they are necessities.

Given that, the trade market will likely become an increasingly appealing option to teams hunting starting pitching without the financial wherewithal — perceived or real — to take on such risk.

The Miami Marlins might have young pitchers to spare. The White Sox continue to listen on lefty Dylan Cease, who will be a free agent after the 2025 season, and the Brewers could decide to offload ace Corbin Burnes, who is a free agent after this season.

But with so many teams still needing starters, affordable ones who have yet to hit free agency will command massive prospect costs, if not the surrender of legitimate big league talent.

The Brewers, who do not seem determined to deal Burnes, can hold out for whatever price they want before making that decision.

The options are dwindling, but the number of suitors is not, meaning the most competitive starting pitching market in recent memory is not likely to become much friendlier.