Canada’s undefended North

Speaking to Radio-canada International this week, Finland’s ambassador to Canada noted that his country’s acceptance into NATO last spring, and the expected entry of Sweden, will help secure the Arctic against Russia’s militaristic ambitions. There’s no doubt Canada could use all the help it can get.

Finland has been busy improving the rail link from its border with Sweden to Kemijarvi, about an hour’s drive from the Russian border, which could be used by NATO to transport troops and equipment. It has also ordered a fleet of 64 F-35s, which are due to start being delivered in 2026, and is spending €150 million ($219 million) to refurbish its airbase in Lapland, its northernmost region, to host them.

Sweden, meanwhile, increased its 2024 defence budget by 30 per cent over last year. It has ordered two new submarines, set to go into service in 2027 and 2028, which will increase its sub fleet to six. Since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, it has also reinstated the draft and refortified the strategically located island of Gotland.

Other countries in the region have also been increasing defence expenditures — and it’s easy to see why. According to Finnish Ambassador Jari Vilén, “Before our, and soon Sweden’s membership, the Russian military buildup in the Arctic has been completely different compared to the capabilities that NATO has in the region.” Yet even an expanded NATO faces significant challenges from Russia, which has spent years militarizing the Far North.

It’s true that the war in Ukraine has severely depleted the Russian military and exposed it as a far less fearsome fighting force than many expected. But it is also the case that Russia’s northern naval fleet and its squadron of strategic bombers remain intact. According to the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, western militaries are about a decade behind Russia’s in the Arctic.

Less than 350 kilometres from Kemijarvi, the terminus of Sweden’s new electric rail line, which is set to open sometime this year, lies a collection of Russian bases on the Kola Peninsula, at the northern tip of western Russia. It is home to a fleet of around 80 fighter jets, 27 subs, over 40 warships and large stockpiles of nuclear weapons.

Over the past two decades, Russia has been building northern deep-water ports and refurbishing more than a dozen Soviet-era Arctic bases. It has also equipped its northern territories with new airfields capable of accommodating nuclear bombers, along with air-defence and anti-ship weaponry, and upgraded surveillance systems.

Russia has the world’s largest fleet of icebreakers, soon expected to number 50 vessels, including two of the world’s largest and most powerful icebreakers, which went into service a couple years ago, and another that is currently under construction. The Russian navy is also expected to have a fleet of 50 submarines by the end of the decade.

According to a 2023 report from the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies, the Russian Arctic is home to three large army bases, “around 13 airfields, 10 radar stations, 20 border outposts and 10 emergency rescue stations.”

This stands in sharp contrast to Canada, which has never bothered to develop or defend its northern territories, despite the fact that, geographically, they comprise nearly half the country. We don’t have any rail lines extending anywhere close to the Arctic Circle, our northernmost railway going only as far as Great Slave Lake. Our aged submarine fleet consists of four vessels that spend more time at port than at sea, and can’t operate for extended periods under the ice.

We don’t have any operational northern deep-water ports, having spent more than a decade trying to build a single port, the Nanisivik Naval Facility, which is nine years behind schedule and $30 million over budget, despite being significantly scaled back from its original design. Even when it’s completed, which is expected some time this year, the port will not be able to land large aircraft or operate during the winter.

The increased defence spending of our NATO allies, particularly the other northern nations, will surely give our government cover to continue free-riding. Yet the fact remains that we are living in an increasingly dangerous world and relying on the protection of our American allies is no longer a given.

Earlier this month, former president and Republican front-runner Donald Trump suggested that he “would not protect” NATO allies that fail to pay their share. Yet many of them have already stepped up to the plate. Last week, NATO Secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg announced that 18 of the 31 allies were expected to meet the target of spending two per cent of GDP on defence in 2024, up from 11 last year.

Canada, however, continues to be a laggard, spending an estimated 1.38 per cent of GDP on defence and actively looking to cut nearly $1 billion from its defence budget.

Canadians have clearly grown complacent, protected, as we are, by two vast oceans to the east and west, and the world’s most powerful military to the south. Yet we reside at the nexus of a geopolitical fault line to the north. China and Russia are both pursuing expansionist policies and increasingly collaborating on upending the rules-based international order. And they both have their sights set on the Far North as a region of economic and strategic value.

If Canada doesn’t have a military capable of protecting our interests in the North, we risk ceding our status as a northern power, and handing untold riches to our enemies.

THERE’S NO DOUBT CANADA COULD USE ALL THE HELP IT CAN GET.