The Democrats’ losing man
Over on Substack, pop statistician and professional contrarian Nate Silver has penned an important manifesto for Biden-skeptical U.S. Democrats. All outside observers of the United States are trying to piece together how it is that the forthcoming presidential election seems fated to be contested by two elderly man-crones — one of them erratic, unprincipled, obtuse and vindictive, and the other well-liked but in the grip of obvious cognitive decline. Silver, a deepdyed Democrat, is indeed a crucial intellectual leader among Democrats, but he is as baffled and discouraged as you or me.
Silver wants the Democrats to win with every cell of his body, and he says he believes President Joe Biden’s elderly confusion is likely to condemn his party to defeat in the White House race, even though Biden already defeated Donald Trump head-to-head 3½ years ago. Silver, with typical thoroughness and stats-fetish touches, makes this case as strongly as he can, and more strongly than anyone else on the Democratic side is ever likely to. And if he’s right, it’s not in the interest of Republicans to get Biden out of the way, either.
Silver contends that the background political situation ought to be terrific for Democrats. Trump faces an array of legal challenges, including ones directly opposing his eligibility for the presidency. The Supreme Court helped energize Democratic voters by overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022. Popular and corporate economic sentiment in the U.S. is now turning positive and catching up with attractive labour-market conditions.
An incumbent president with these campaign assets, one who already beat the other guy, ought to be able to sleepwalk to victory. But the polls remain grotesque for Biden — remember, Silver is an acknowledged Democratic expert in interpreting those — and voters witnessing Biden’s rare and inevitably stage-managed appearances could be forgiven for wondering whether the president is sometimes literally sleepwalking. Silver is especially alarmed by Biden’s refusal to sit for a Super Bowl interview with the CBS network.
Recent presidents have done this nearly every year, because, duh, why wouldn’t they? Considered only in terms of brute market value, the president’s ability to communicate with the Super Bowl audience at no cost has to run into the high eight digits. Biden is running against the greatest weaponizer of free media in the annals of democracy, and his team is throwing away its own incumbent’s free-media opportunities. Does this suggest gleaming, unlimited confidence in their candidate? You would never doubt it reading the newspapers and elite opinion journals.
“Even the most optimistic Democrats,” Silver writes, “if you read between the lines, are really arguing that Democrats could win despite Biden and not because of him. Biden is probably a below-replacement-level candidate at this point because Americans have a lot of extremely rational concerns about the prospect of a commander-in-chief who would be 86 years old by the end of his second term. It is entirely reasonable to see this as disqualifying.
“The fact that Trump also has a number of disqualifying features is not a good reason to nominate Biden,” Silver adds. “It is a reason for Democrats to be the adults in the room and acknowledge that someone who can’t sit through a Super Bowl interview isn’t someone the public can trust to have the physical and mental stamina to handle an international crisis, terrorist attack or some other unforeseen threat when he’ll be in his mid80s.”
Such “unforeseen” threats are, in some quantity, certain to arise during the approaching presidential term. Reacting to them is the essence of the American presidency, and the president’s reactions are bound to affect uncountable millions of lives within the U.S. and without. Under the circumstances, a second Biden-trump contest would be a ludicrous tragedy — one that is now only preventable if Biden can be persuaded to step aside voluntarily. Good luck, Nate! You’re gonna need it.