Temporary immigration up nearly 50% in 2023, report finds
THERE’S A JUMP IN TEMPORARY IMMIGRATION AND AN IMPRESSION THAT QUEBEC HAS LOST CONTROL, THAT WE WEREN’T PREPARED IN AREAS
SUCH AS HOUSING OR PUBLIC SERVICES. MAYBE THE CO-ORDINATION (WITH
OTTAWA) HAS BEEN LACKING. — EMNA BRAHAM, IDQ EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Authorities in Canada and Quebec underestimated the effect temporary immigration would have on housing and public services over the past decade, a new study suggests.
Quebec’s temporary resident population soared 46 per cent last year to 528,034, according to a report published Monday by the Institut du Québec (IDQ) non-profit think tank, which compiled Statistics Canada data. Quebec had 167,435 temporary work permit holders in 2023, almost four times as many as in 2015, as well as 117,745 foreign students — most of whom have the right to work here — and asylum seekers.
Surging immigration numbers have become a hot-button issue in Quebec, with Premier François Legault calling on Ottawa to cut the number of asylum seekers arriving in the province because not enough of them speak French.
Some of the issues surrounding immigration can be traced back to an easing of regulations in 2022 that accelerated the delivery of temporary work permits in Quebec, IDQ economists write in their report.
“There’s been a lot of talk about immigration in the last few weeks and we thought it was important to underline the impacts on the job market that are often looked at only in silos,” IDQ executive director Emna Braham, who co-authored the study, said in an interview.
Immigration policies “are generally well designed, but when governments decided to put in place a series of simplifications a few years ago, they failed to anticipate their cumulative impact,” Braham added. “Today, there’s a jump in temporary immigration and an impression that Quebec has lost control, that we weren’t prepared in areas such as housing or public services. Maybe the co-ordination (with Ottawa) has been lacking.”
Temporary immigration programs lack precise limits, the IDQ economists write. A dearth of detailed data that would shed light on the economic effect of the measures means authorities can’t adequately monitor them, the authors add.
Immigration was the sole source of growth in Quebec’s labour pool between 2015 and 2023 as many baby boomers retired, the IDQ report shows. About 272,000 permanent immigrants entered the workforce during the period, as well as 112,000 temporary residents, while 54,000 Canadian-born workers exited the province’s labour pool.
New arrivals explain why Quebec gained about 100,000 working-age individuals last year, the study says. That’s almost triple the 39,000 average annual increase recorded between 2015 and 2022. Unlike permanent immigration, which is capped at about 50,000 people a year, Quebec has set no limits on temporary residents.
The surge in temporary immigration over the past year has coincided with an economic slowdown. Quebec’s unemployment rate rose from four per cent to 4.5 per cent in the year ended in January.
Temporary immigrants come here through two main channels: the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, which allows Quebec employers to bring people in to fill vacant positions, and Ottawa’s International Mobility Program, which combines various mechanisms for welcoming temporary residents such as foreign graduates.
With 107,615 permit holders as of last year, the International Mobility Program is the biggest source of temporary foreign workers in the province. The problem is, it doesn’t specifically aim to fill vacant jobs, IDQ economists write.
As for Quebec’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program, it generated 59,820 temporary immigrants last year. Twenty-three per cent of participants were agricultural workers. So far, neither tool has allowed Quebec to fill vacant positions in health care and construction — critical shortcomings as the population ages and authorities scramble to tackle the housing crisis.
“In the past year, we’ve seen a major drop in vacant positions across Quebec, but the number in health care has barely budged,” Braham said. “There are attractiveness issues, including wages and working conditions, but the fact is we are seeing few temporary immigrants active in health care.”
One way for Quebec to alleviate pressing labour shortages would be to focus future international recruitment missions on health care and construction, Braham says.
Authorities should also put greater emphasis on recognizing foreign degrees and worker competencies in these two fields, she adds.
“The good news is that the levers exist, partly in Quebec City and partly in Ottawa, to adjust (immigration) policies,” Braham said.