Poilievre’s new weapon: millennials?
Support for Tories rises among the nation’s largest demographic
OTTAWA • If Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre romps to victory in the next federal election, his triumph may be fuelled by an unlikely source: young people.
Millennials now outnumber baby boomers as the largest demographic and, according to Abacus Data, they are leaning toward the political right as they face mounting pressure from the cost of living and housing affordability crises.
Support for the Liberals among millennials has dwindled from 45 per cent in 2015 to just 20 per cent today, wrote David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, in a recent article on Substack.
Meanwhile, millennial support for Conservatives has skyrocketed to 41 per cent, higher than in 2011 when the party was last elected to government. Coletto’s data defines millennials as those born between 1980 and 2000, although some sources point to 1996 as the generational cutoff.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won the millennial vote in the 2015, 2019 and 2021 federal elections but, with the next federal election scheduled for the fall of 2025, millennial voters are looking elsewhere.
Coletto says these voters are making decision on the issues, rather than the image of the leaders.
“They are much more focused on understanding how dissatisfied they may be over the performance of the federal government but listening for solutions from the other parties on the issues they care most about,” says Coletto.
More people are voting with cost of living and housing affordability in mind as younger generations are priced out of things that came easier to their parents and grandparents, like owning a home, groceries, and having more disposable income.
That’s even pushing out other issues, like climate change, that have traditionally been important to young people. Recent Abacus Data shows that climate change is a top policy priority for 28 per cent of baby boomers and only 19 per cent of millennials.
It comes as no surprise that millennials are focusing on more pressing, short-term issues when “it’s their wallet that are most squeezed,” says Paul Kershaw, professor at the University of British Columbia and founder of the Generation Squeeze Lab.
He says they may still care for climate solutions, but they are not afforded the opportunity to prioritize both.
But Ginny Roth, a partner at Crestview Strategy, rejects the notion that millennials are not voting where their interests truly lie.
Roth says that what voters want has changed since the Liberals won the election in 2015, where many were looking for solutions to environmental issues. Nine years later, some voters are losing the loving feeling for initiatives like the carbon tax.
“Rather than reading that straight, or analyzing it on its own terms, you see analysts try and explain for the outcome that they want, which is they want voters to want climate change policy,” she says. “I don’t accept the premise that they are not voting in their long-term interests. We have to trust millennial voters, like we trust all voters, to understand the balance between the shortterm interests and long-term interests, balance between all their needs, and decide who to vote for.”
Kershaw says that “hard work doesn’t pay off for millennials like it did for previous generations” and that Poilievre is “tapping into young people’s grief” about affordability.
While there is a general uptick in Conservative support in millennials, young men are more likely to vote Conservative than young women.
Young men were more likely to vote Conservative over the second-place Liberals (46 per cent versus 20 per cent) and young women were more likely to vote Conservative over NDP (36 per cent versus 29 per cent), according to Abacus Data.
Roth says she wouldn’t overstate the gender divide.
“A vote is a vote,” she says. “If you’re winning, you should keep doing more of what you’re doing, and you should design a political strategy designed to maximize your mandate.”
Roth says she believes some of the gender divide affecting Canadian politics on all fronts is being driven by social media echo chambers, something younger people are more prone to falling into compared to their baby boomer counterparts.
Although millennials may be voting on the issues, the leaders are still determined to improve their image and overall likability.
Last July, Poilievre debuted a new cool and casual look possibly in a bid to win over skeptical voters. He ditched the regular suit and tie combo with his usual eyeglasses for blue jeans, a T-shirt and aviator sunglasses while he toured the country.
And it seems to be working for the Conservative leader, who has a +6 net impression according to recent polling by Abacus Data. That is compared to a startling -32 net impression for Trudeau and -1 for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.
Coletto says the Conservatives might be more attractive in the next election “because they’re not the Liberals.” Conservatives are focusing on issues that are important for those in their 30s and 40s, like housing.
“They are much more likely to be attracted to a choice that they feel is a change in the direction the country is headed to, and Pierre Poilievre, to those who said they would vote for him, represents that change most clearly right now.”
Millennials may also feel more drawn to the Conservatives because the party itself also looks younger. The Conservatives have unveiled a crop of young candidates recently, including Jamil Jivani, who is running for the party in a Monday byelection in Durham.
“I think Mr. Poilievre has been successful in making his party younger and leaving the other party greyer. The Liberals are worried about how to attract back the younger vote that was so important to their initial election success,” says Kershaw.
Despite efforts to appear more likable, Poilievre may still face some restraint among voters for his positions on certain topics.
Coletto says he thinks there is risk for the Conservatives when it comes to issues like climate change, abortion or transgender rights. He says that if the party gets framed as one seeking to divide rather than bring together, it could do more harm than good.
“There are some issues but if they stay focused on those bread-and-butter issues like housing, cost of living, economic messaging, that’s the sweet spot with this generation today,” says Coletto.
Kershaw says that the next election is an opportunity for millennials, and all young Canadians, to exercise their political power to enact change they want to see from their government.
“You can’t fix that as an individual, the only way you fix that is through politics.”
THE LIBERALS ARE WORRIED ABOUT HOW TO ATTRACT BACK THE YOUNGER VOTE.