Israel braces for attack by Iran
Retaliation feared imminent after strike on embassy
Israel is bracing for a direct and unprecedented attack by Iran on government targets as soon as Saturday, according to people familiar with western intelligence assessments, a move that has the potential to trigger an all-out regional war.
An assault from Iranian soil has emerged as one of the main scenarios expected by the Jewish state and its allies, said the people, who asked not to be identified as they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly. A bombardment with drones and precision missiles could come within the next 48 hours, they said.
The United States is preparing defences and moved additional military assets to the region, while intensifying diplomatic efforts to rein in hostilities, the people said.
The attack still hasn’t been approved by Tehran’s highest-ranking officials, they said.
The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem issued a security warning to government employees and their families, imposing travel restrictions on their movements.
The alert, which does not explicitly mention Iran, was issued as leaders in Tehran vowed to respond to an Israeli strike this month on Iran’s embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, that killed top Iranian military leaders.
“Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv … Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice,” reads the U.S. Embassy security alert, issued Thursday.
The attack killed two senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and five other officers, Iran said.
While Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility, U.S. officials told The Washington Post that Pentagon officials were frustrated that Israel did not notify the United States before the April 1 strike, which they assess increases risks to U.S. forces in the Middle East.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Israel would be “punished” and “regret this crime.”
Israel has vowed to strike back at Iran “if Iran attacks from its territory.”
The head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Michael (Erik) Kurilla, visited Israel on Thursday, a Pentagon spokesperson said, as the allies co-ordinate on preparing for Iran’s promised counterstrike. U.S. President Joe Biden has repeated that the U.S. commitment to Israel against threats from Iran and its allies is “ironclad.”
“The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness as security incidents often take place without warning,” the alert said. “The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events.”
One source said it’s possible that the increasingly inflammatory rhetoric between Israel, Iran and the U.S. could be grandstanding, but said the working assumption for Israel and allies is that an attack is imminent. Diplomatic back-channels are in overdrive, the people said.
U.S. officials including Jake Sullivan and Brett Mcgurk have been working to send messages to Iran, including through an established Swiss channel, one of the people said, while talking to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other governments.
White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-pierre said Thursday the U.S. has warned Iran not to use Israel’s attack in Syria as a pretext to escalate hostilities further.
“We’ve seen the threats coming from Iran and so we have made ourselves very clear where we stand in supporting Israel’s security,” she said. “That is ironclad.”
Any Iranian attack on Israel would likely be a combination of missiles and drones, based on current capabilities outlined in a new Defense Intelligence Agency Worldwide Threat assessment released late Thursday.
Iran “has a substantial inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of striking targets as far as 2,000 kilometres from its borders,” the agency said.
Bloomberg reported on Wednesday the U.S. and allies were expecting a major escalation of hostilities, with targeted attacks on Israeli government and military sites. The Jewish State hasn’t claimed or denied responsibility for the Damascus attack, in keeping with a decades-long policy of ambiguity on operations in Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere.
A direct Israel-iran conflict would significantly ratchet up hostilities in the Middle East, where tensions have been rising since Israel began its war against Hamas in October, after the Iranbacked resistance group invaded the country and killed about 1,200 people.