SIMPLY SAYING ‘DON’T’ WON’T DETER IRAN
BIDEN’S APPEASEMENT OF THE TERRORIST STATE FAILED AS ENEMIES SENSE WEAKNESS
When the United States administration at various levels issued a blunt one-word warning to Iran on April 12 — “don’t” — after two Iranian generals were killed in Syria by a targeted Israeli strike, it failed spectacularly.
The Taliban, Vladimir Putin and Iran earlier demonstrated the failure of “don’t” deterrence.
It was no different this time, and on April 13, Iran retaliated by launching more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel.
Fortunately, some of these weapons failed to launch, and most that did were shot down by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), as well as the U.S., the United Kingdom, Jordan and others. There was minimal damage and no loss of life. But Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel was indiscriminate and not directed at military targets, unlike Israel’s precision strike against Iran’s generals in Syria.
Predictably, U.S. President Joe Biden urged Israel to “take the win” and not retaliate further. But why should they? The Israelis were well within their rights to respond, having proven the prowess of their anti-missile phalanx — the Arrow, Iron Dome, David’s Sling, etc. But there is no assurance that it and its allies can repeat the success should Iran, along with its regional proxies, choose to escalate again.
Echoing the sentiment favouring restraint, the Financial Times contended that “the lesson Israel can take is that when it is under threat, its allies rally around.” However, Walter Russell Mead claimed in the Wall Street Journal that “It would be political suicide for Mr. Netanyahu to take the president’s advice, and it would be national suicide for any Israeli prime minister to do so.” Indeed. For now, Israel decided on a limited retaliatory attack near Isfahan, Iran, home to the country’s nuclear military sites, more to send a message rather than to exacerbate regional tensions.
Biden is not the only politician with elections on his mind but that is presumably why he tries to balance “ironclad” support for Israel’s security with concerns about civilian casualties and severe humanitarian challenges. Pro-palestine, anti-israel demonstrations sweeping American woke-soaked campuses with manifestations of antisemitism aggravate matters further. With a few notable exceptions, university administrators seem incapable of restoring order.
Tehran has reason to believe that the U.S. president fears escalation in an election year more than they do, but the mantra of “no escalation” flies in the face of the lengthy shadow war Israel has conducted to counter Iran and its regional proxies.
Congress’ belated approval of additional military aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan sent a very clear message to all U.S. adversaries and is much better than empty rhetorical posturing. But, for Ukraine, the question is whether it is too late, as it has been throughout the war. Biden’s appeasement of Iran — easing sanctions notably on oil exports, freeing tens of billions of dollars of frozen funds and attempting to renegotiate the flawed 2015 nuclear deal concluded by former president Barack Obama — has backfired. At a time when they all sense U.S. weakness or diffidence, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are working together more closely to exploit matters. They must relish the prospect of four more years of strategic ambivalence. A measure of the spine exercised by Israel is needed to confront the authoritarian phalanx.
Iran had already sensed weakness and directed its proxies — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen — to attack Israel, U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The carefully calibrated U.S. response has had little deterrent effect. It should strike back more effectively at Iran’s regional proxies whose attacks against U.S. facilities in the region persist despite solemn admonitions of “don’t.”
Apart from adding new sanctions, the U.S. should enforce those already in place. Iran should be isolated as the rogue pariah state it has become. The only credible deterrent is action, not chiding words.
In his book New Cold Wars, David E. Sanger of the New York Times sees a world “far more complex and dangerous than that of half a century ago.” He wonders whether Biden or Donald Trump have any plans for dealing with China and Russia as they vie with the U.S. for global supremacy. They have ignored the lesson from Henry Kissinger about the importance of preventing China and Russia from coming closer together. Putin and Xi Jinping have met 40 times in the past decade. In November, Xi and Biden met as leaders for just the second time.
One dramatically positive example of collective deterrence came from the state visit to Washington last month by Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. He and Biden signed 70 agreements to enhance military co-operation and on projects ranging from missile development to moon landings — “the most significant upgrade of our alliance since it was first established,” said Biden.
Japan has already doubled its defence spending to become the third-largest in Asia (behind China and India).
The two leaders also held a summit with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines that focused on Beijing’s South China Sea incursions. They announced trilateral military operations to underscore their concern.
Separately, in mid-april, the U.S., Japan and South Korea held three-day naval drills in the disputed East China Sea. While clearly directed at China, officials emphasized that the drills were “defensive” in nature.
Most striking was Kishida’s speech to Congress urging the U.S. to act like a global power. He referred to “an undercurrent of self-doubt” among some about what role the U.S. should play in the world. He affirmed that Japan stands “side by side” with the U.S. while imploring it to be a champion of international order.
That is what serious allies do. Saying “don’t” doesn’t cut it on deterrence. Real demonstrations of unambiguous resolve and collective action will.
THE CAREFULLY CALIBRATED U.S. RESPONSE HAS HAD LITTLE DETERRENT EFFECT.