Carney keeps appearing like a ghost at PM’S feast
The Conservatives are so convinced that Mark Carney wants to become the next leader of the Liberal party, they have already let loose their attack dogs upon him, branding him “carbon tax Carney.”
But they may have to update that tag after the former central bank governor appeared to disavow the consumer carbon tax at a Senate committee meeting Wednesday. His comments suggest that if he ever runs for office, he will not do so proposing the same tax that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is promising to axe.
When he was asked by Conservative Sen. Yonah Martin whether he supports the Trudeau government’s carbon tax, Carney said “it has served a purpose up until now. I think one can always look for better solutions, and as a country, we should always be open to better solutions.”
He did not elaborate on what a better solution might be but established the principle that you can’t “axe the tax” without having a back-up plan. The Conservatives have only said that they would subsidize clean energy and emissions-reduction technology, without committing to putting a price on emissions through taxation or regulation.
Carney told the Senate banking committee that countries that don’t take measures to reduce embedded carbon will see their trade access closed down. He referenced a speech last month by White House adviser John Podesta that launched a new climate and trade task force. Podesta said the average ton of aluminum made in China produces 60-per-cent more emissions than the same product made in the U.S. We need a race to the top, not the bottom, he said, pledging the U.S. will deepen dialogue with the European Union, which is introducing a carbon-adjustment mechanism to tax goods coming from countries without emissions-reduction plans.
Carney said embedded carbon is going to be core to trade “and that is going to happen much sooner than we suspect.”
He has lately deflected inquiries about his political ambitions by pointing out there is no vacancy at the top of the Liberal party, and that he is busy in his capacity of vice-chair of Brookfield Asset Management.
That is somewhat disingenuous. Friends say he is not messianic about a career in politics and that he believes at some point it will be too late to save the Liberals. (As a matter of disclosure, I have been friends with Carney for more than a decade.)
At the same time, he has been like the ghost at Justin Trudeau’s feast in recent months, delivering speeches such as the one he made at the Canada 2020 economic Lookahead Dinner last month in Toronto, in which he outlined what he said were three potential responses to this “hinge moment in history.”
One is to “spend, support, subsidize” — clearly a reference to the Trudeau government. Two, is to “demolish, destroy, deny” — a hat-tip to Poilievre’s complaint that “everything feels broken.” Three is his preference, “it’s time to build,” in which lower emissions are key to competitiveness and public money is used to “catalyze” private investment in the energy transition.
“This new era will demand fiscal discipline and a relentless focus on delivery, rather than reflex spending that only treats the symptoms but doesn’t cure the disease,” he said. The criticism was oblique but as subtle as a brick through a window.
If a vacancy does become available, Carney would have a fight on his hands. An Abacus Data poll this week suggested that 13 per cent would support Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, 11 per cent would back Carney, and five per cent would fall in behind Mélanie Joly and François-philippe Champagne respectively. A majority were unsure, which suggests the field is wide open.
The Liberal MPS I have spoken with are keen on Public Safety Minister Dominic Leblanc, who is popular in the party — important since it is Liberal members who would decide any future contest.
Memories of Michael Ignatieff haunt many party veterans, who witnessed another intellectual who had been absent from Canada for several years take the party to third party status.
If Carney did become leader, the Conservatives could simply dust off their attack ads that suggest another elitist carpetbagger who “didn’t come back for you.”
The comparison is valid, although arguably Carney is less aloof and more politically savvy.
He has been lambasted as “Iggy with a calculator” and a man who uses too many 10-dollar words. But the case could be made that we live in a 10-dollar-word world: simplistic slogans are not going to make Canada more competitive, or Canadians better off.
My sense is that if the Liberals are still 20 points behind in the polls in mid-summer, there will be enormous pressure on Trudeau to go. If the prime minister decides he can’t win and leaves, and Carney feels the party still has a decent shot at victory, the former bank governor will take the risk of reprising Ignatieff’s ignominious 2011 feat and run on a plan of real change.
It remains to be seen whether he has the political intelligence — the ability to say the right thing in the way that maximizes its effect.
In his memoir Fire and Ashes, Ignatieff identified some of the traits needed to succeed in politics: the need to champion ideas, not for their intellectual worth but because their time has come; the ability to make contrivance seem uncontrived; the skill to dramatize choices into shades of black and white; and, most importantly, the capacity to convince people that the difference you want to make is to their lives, not yours.
Carney gave a speech at the community hall in Ottawa’s leafy Rockcliffe Park on Wednesday night and wowed a friendly audience. But he was standing in the safest Liberal seat in the country and those people are his well-heeled neighbours. If he takes the plunge, there will be tougher nights.