Leafs have their head coach, but roster questions remain
Can Berube guide core group to Stanley Cup?
The question that will be on the minds of most won’t have an answer when Craig Berube is introduced as the new Maple Leafs coach on Tuesday morning.
What will Berube do to guide the Leafs’ best players to the point that they can be actual difference-makers in the Stanley Cup playoffs?
Everything else lined up for Berube’s predecessor, Sheldon Keefe, in the latter’s tenure of 4½ years as Leafs coach. Under Keefe, the Leafs recorded three consecutive 100-point regular seasons, a fact that no other man who has stood behind the Toronto bench can use as a bragging right.
When the hockey mattered most, though, we know what happened. The Leafs couldn’t break through in the playoffs, and when they did advance to the second round a year ago, the usual refrain resumed. In three of its four losses to Florida in a series that went just five games, Toronto lost by one goal.
This spring, Keefe didn’t have the usage of a full lineup in the first round against the Boston Bruins for all seven games, and by that, of course, we’re referring to William Nylander’s migraines and Auston Matthews’ illness and head injury that caused their best forwards to miss time.
We’ll never know if the outcome would have been different had Nylander and Matthews been healthy for every game. You have to entertain the idea, though, that the scales would have been tipped in the Leafs’ favour, and if so, then the narrative today changes. Having said that, we would have picked the Panthers to beat the Leafs in the second round.
The question that goes hand in hand with Berube’s ability to squeeze more from the Leafs’ stars in the post-season, of course, is which core players will be remaining when the puck drops for opening night of the regular season.
Extensions for Matthews and Nylander start this coming season, extensions that were authored by general manager Brad Treliving, with Matthews signing last August and Nylander this past January. With those contracts, Treliving tied the Leafs future to their backs. Captain John Tavares, with one year left on his contract, might not be asked to waive his no-move clause.
With Mitch Marner, it could be much different.
If the Leafs make true on their desire to make core changes, even the most casual of observers take that to mean that Marner will be asked to consider waiving his no-move clause.
If Marner decides he doesn’t want to do that — and we go back two weeks ago when he said his wish was to remain with the Leafs for the long term — then Treliving’s off-season becomes much more intriguing. There would be many worse things than having Marner back in 2024-25 for the Leafs to finish his contract. No matter what Marner has or has not done in the playoffs, though, watching him walk in free agency next summer with zero return would be a major blow to the organization. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.
If Berube wants a chance to coach Marner with the rest of the core, perhaps giving him that opportunity could bear playoff fruit in the end.
That leads to another question: What could reasonably be deemed as playoff success in Toronto? Is it Berube coaching the team beyond the first round next spring? Do people really think Berube is suddenly going to turn the Leafs into legitimate Cup contenders in one year?
As it stands, we can’t say with certainty that the Leafs will be any better under Berube than they were under Keefe. Look at this past regular season — Keefe coached the Leafs to a 102-point season through a minefield that included injuries to key players and goaltending that found consistency elusive at times. All the while, Treliving’s words that the Leafs defence corps was a work in progress hung in the air.
And yet, defensive play was not the reason the Leafs lost in seven games to the Bruins. The Leafs played tight hockey, especially in the latter stages of the series.
If the Leafs weren’t being held properly accountable within their dressing room walls, they wouldn’t have persevered like they did in the regular season, and they wouldn’t have played smart defensive hockey in the playoffs. At no time did the Leafs quit on Keefe.
Berube won the Cup in 2019 with St. Louis after taking over when Mike Yeo was fired in November 2018. The Blues, though, never got close to hoisting the silver mug again with Berube as coach, and his regular-season record in the past several years wasn’t on par with Keefe’s.
The Leafs have to figure out what’s happening with Marner, Treliving has to get it right with the changes he is bound to make in goal and he has to find a way to turn his defence corps into one that is no longer a work in progress.
As for Berube’s effect on the core and how that is measured in success next spring. Sure, Berube will be a different voice than Keefe was. But that question can’t be answered Tuesday when Berube and Treliving hold court at the Ford Performance Centre.