Here’s when hurricane activity is expected to return
Hurricane season roared to life in late June and early July as Beryl became the earliest Category 5 on record. Since then, however, the Atlantic has been bereft of tropical activity, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center doesn’t anticipate storm development for at least a week.
Considering all of the forecasts for an active season — Colorado State University upped its forecast to 25 total named storms just two weeks ago — an understandable question would be: Where are the hurricanes?
The short answer is that they’re still coming and the current break in activity isn’t unexpected or unusual. It could well be the calm before the storm.
Hurricane season doesn’t peak until Sept. 15 on average, with activity often lasting well into November. Moreover, the weather patterns expected to help fuel an active season are just starting to take shape.
A burgeoning La Niña weather pattern will favour more upward-moving air across the Atlantic, enhancing the number of storms that can form. It will also help promote weaker-than-normal upper-level winds that favour increased storm organization. Meanwhile, record-warm water temperatures will provide ample fuel to make storms stronger.
Storm activity so far this season is actually running ahead of average, despite the recent hiatus. A season’s first named storm forms on average around June 20; this year, Alberto formed on June 19. By Aug. 3, two storms have typically developed. Three have already formed this year, though Chris was a marginal storm that lasted only about 12 hours.
Also of note: A season’s first hurricane doesn’t usually materialize until Aug. 11, and a Category 3 or stronger hurricane until Sept. 1. Yet Beryl became a hurricane on June 29 and an “extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane” on June 30.