National Post (National Edition)
Shuffle talk is in the air
Young Tories are pawns in PM’s deep game
WAtChing MiChelle Rempel in the House of Commons ThursdAy, it wAs oBvious why so mAny people think she’s A loCk for A joB in CABinet when Stephen HArper shuffles his deCk this summer.
The 32-yeAr-old from CAlgAry is pretty — CAn we still sAy thAt? — And shrewd. She wAs tAking pArt in A deBAte on ClimAte ChAnge And reveAled thAt As A 10-yeAr-old “sCienCe geek,” she reAd ABout EArth DAy And stArted worrying ABout ClimAte ChAnge. She hAd Been preCeded By MiChAel Chong, the 41-yeAr-old from Fergus, Ont., who is less pretty But telegeniC in his own wAy And An exCellent deBAter. He gAve A vigorous defenCe of the government’s environment poliCy, suCh thAt A jury would Be left with A reAsonABle douBt ABout the opposition ChArge of negligenCe on the file.
The reCeived wisdom in OttAwA — And therefore the leAst likely outCome — is thAt Mr. HArper will refresh his CABinet this summer By promoting the Best And Brightest of his pArliAmentAry seCretAries into key portfolios. While Mr. Chong is CleArly ABle, he resigned from CABinet in 2006 BeCAuse he did not support A government motion reCognizing QuéBeC As A nAtion within CAnAdA. Mr. HArper rArely forgives or forgets, so the MP for HAlton Hills mAy hAve to Be pAtient Before he is rehABilitAted.
But the Consensus is thAt Ms. Rempel, And her fellow pArliAmentAry seCretAries Chris AlexAnder, CAndiCe Bergen, Shelley Glover And Pierre Poilievre Are CABinet Bound.
Hmm. All five hAve done their time in the trenChes And Been good soldiers, often ACCepting politiCAlly dAngerous Assignments with enthusiAsm.
But they Are AlreAdy the friendly puBliC fACe of the government, AppeAring nightly on politiCAl tAlk-shows And ACting As the front-line of defenCe when the ConservAtives Are tAking fire.
When the ACCusAtions fly thAt the Tories Are A BunCh of old, white guys who Are hAppy to Befoul the environment in their quest for profit, they wheel out Ms. Rempel, not the 70-yeAr-old minister, Peter Kent.
When ViC Toews, the PuBliC SAfety Minister, hAs sAid something perCeived As pArtiCulArly outrAgeous, they send out Ms. Bergen to explAin whAt he reAlly meAnt.
Is Mr. HArper reAlly going to put either into some invisiBle portfolio suCh As Minister of StAte for Seniors?
Only one in four Cabinet ministers is female, so there is a drive to fill any vacancies with women
He could drop them into a senior portfolio but we have seen that movie before, when he over-promoted Rona Ambrose in 2006. He could drop them into a senior portfolio but we have seen that movie before, when he over-promoted Rona Ambrose in 2006. It didn’t end well.
In any case, there is a natural progression Is Mr. Harper really going to parachute someone into a top job and create a brigade of malcontents from those passed over.
It seems that to be young, telegenic and quick on your feet in the Harper government is as much a curse as a career-enhancer.
That’s not to say there will not be promotions from the ranks of parliamentary secretaries. But, this being Canada, merit is a tertiary consideration behind gender and geography. Good candidates for promotion like Mike Lake, James Rajotte and Rick Dykstra are likely to find themselves falling short on both counts.
Only one in four Cabinet ministers is female, so there is a drive to fill any vacancies with women.
Then there is the delicate provincial balance. For that reason, Winnipeg MP Ms. Glover is likely to ascend, since it seems certain that Mr. Toews will retire.
Gordon O’Connor, the chief whip, is 74 years old this year and may also step down, which would open a Cabinet position from the national capital region. Mr. Poilievre’s luck would be in, were that the case.
Peter Penashue’s apparently doomed bid to get re-elected in Labrador means Mr. Harper is going to have to find another minister in Atlantic Canada. New Brunswick MPs Rob Moore and John Williamson would be ready and able to step up, even if the latter has annoyed his former boss by recently arguing for more independence for backbench MPs.
And then there is the linchpin of the whole shuffle — Jim Flaherty. The Finance Minister says he knows what is going on — he is going on. But suggestions that he will call it quits this summer continue to abound. If he does, candidates for his job would include Tony Clement, the Treasury Board president, Ted Menzies, currently Minister of State for Finance, and John Baird, the Foreign Minister (who is quite happy where he is, thank you very much).
Of the other heavy hitters in Cabinet, Jason Kenney is the strongest performer in Cabinet and has done a good job at Immigration. But that may work against him as Justin Trudeau seeks to usurp the Conservatives in the suburbs. In any case, having the Prime Minister and Finance Minister from the same city would likely cause palpitations east of the prairies.
James Moore has turned Canadian Heritage from a “shield” department, where the Tories were always playing defence, into a “sword.” He has also performed well in Question Period when asked to pinch-hit for the Prime Minister. For the record, he is 36 and his attractiveness is in the eye of the beholder.
Lisa Raitt is another who is widely judged to have performed well in her Labour portfolio. She is overdue a move — something she would undoubtedly welcome, since, as one smartass has noted, three years in labour is enough for any woman.
The job for the Prime Minister, therefore, is quite simple: placate the revolting backbenchers through promotions (or by bringing in a less confrontational House Leader and chief whip); usher in a younger Cabinet, without removing all the stars who stem the tide of opposition criticism on a daily basis; fill in the major departures with replacements of proven ability; and, last but not least, shake up departments that need a new vision — Fisheries, Defence and Industry spring to mind.
Fortunately for him, the Prime Minister understands that there are no true friends in politics and so doesn’t try to cultivate any. The results have been clinical but, generally, effective.
The young and the restless in the government caucus may have to seek solace in the fact that they are mere pawns in this particular game of thrones.