National Post (National Edition)
As Redford’s popularity falls, talk of revolt mounts for Alberta PCs.
In a province with the rare distinction of being a one-party state for the past 40 years, it should come as no surprise that the internal machinations of the Progressive Conservatives have taken on a ritual significance uncommon in other provinces.
When the general electorate is as predictable as Alberta’s, it’s the party that anoints the premier. And the party can undo him or her.
A year after an election that saw the Progressive Conservatives claim another majority, Alison Redford’s popularity is tanking. While she’s proven herself an able ambassador domestically and abroad, at home she’s fending off massive budget deficits, broken election promises and scandals. March’s Angus Reid poll put her approval rating at 29%, making her marginally better liked than B.C. premier Christy Clark. Ms. Redford’s rating has declined an astonishing 26 points since August.
While other premiers might dismiss such a drop so far away from an election, Ms. Redford faces a leadership review in November. Many are openly wondering whether she can survive it.
“How real is the revolt, is the first question, and the second question is whether the leadership review in November reflects that internal discontent,” said Janet Brown, a pollster who has worked in Alberta for two decades. “The safe thing to say, I think, is that there is definitely ... a handful of [people] who are openly disgruntled.”
A recent premier’s dinner was attended by mostly lowlevel staff, Ms. Brown said. The party is also not bringing in as much money from individuals as the opposition Wildrose Party — an ominous sign.
The PC party mandates a leadership review at the second annual general meeting after the party forms the government. It’s not an entirely straightforward process; the majority of the almost 2,000 delegates eligible to vote will be selected from the province’s constituency associations. Current and former MLAs and the party’s youth association also hold sway.
Leaders in Alberta have traditionally breezed through these trials, but the threat is real; If Ms. Redford can’t gain the support of half the delegates, a new leadership vote will be held. Ralph Klein resigned his position after attaining only 55%. And the ob- scurity of the delegate system makes the outcome difficult to poll or predict.
In 2009, a then unpopular Ed Stelmach was widely thought to be at serious risk of a poor review. However, he pulled out a 77% approval rating — only to be toppled later by internal party politics.
Unlike Mr. Stelmach, Ms. Redford has one mark against her that makes the upcoming leadership review even more volatile. Many don’t consider her likable. Her office is recording high staff turnover, she’s been known to reduce underlings to tears and, in the words of a senior Tory aide who spoke on condition of anonymity, the screaming matches in her office are “legendary.”
“There’s so much water to go under the bridge before November,” the aide said. However, there are still many months ahead before anyone will know whether the inner Tory revolt will materialize into anything more substantial than disgruntled pub talk.
“She could probably turn it around and I don’t think most people are really paying attention to this,” the aide said, adding delegates generally won’t be selected until the fall.
Internal party politics can’t be discounted either, Ms. Brown said.
“I think there was lots of evidence when Stelmach had
How real is the revolt is the first question
his review that there was a fair amount of careful orchestration going on,” she said.
But strategy will only carry Ms. Redford so far in this regard; she needs the support of the grassroots of the party to succeed. She also needs the backing of her caucus; this was always going to be a difficult task. During the 2011 leadership race, only one MLA endorsed her before the first ballot.
The presumed front-runner in that contest, Gary Mar, gained the support of dozens.
Then there’s the question of whether the party would risk another leadership race so close to the last one. Absent a strong alternative leadership candidate (and Mr. Mar has flatly denied he’s considering another run), it seems difficult to imagine the delegates would cast their vote against Ms. Redford.
However, there’s no guarantee such a contender won’t emerge, and soon.