100 million Canadians? We can only hope

00,000,000 Canadians by 2100! A tripling of Canada’s population over the next eight decades is the objective of a new organization, the Century Initiative. Canada needs to “get bigger, a lot bigger,” says one of the organization’s leaders.

It’s a long shot, that 100 million.

But a report Thursday from the Trudeau government’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth boldly proposes that Canada boost annual immigration to 450,000. While the council stopped short of mentioning a target, immigration at that rate would easily propel Canada to 100 million before the end of the 21st century.

It seems preposterous at a time when much of the rest of the world has become increasingly wary of immigration — from Trumpian America to Brexit Britain and xenophobic Europe — that Canada might break from the pack.

But we could. And we should.

The immigration targets were only one part of the advisory council’s three major policy recommendations. Far more important — or so it seemed — were the big idea of a $200-billion federal infrastructure development bank and a new push to attract foreign investment. The dramatic political innovation in the report, however, was the call for a rethinking of Canada as a larger, fatter and more prosperous nation.

In many respects, the push for infrastructure projects and foreign investment makes little sense on its own. The real driver of bridge-building and foreign investment must come from a growing population, something that can only happen by opening the country to more immigrants.

Whether 450,000 immigrants a year by 2021, up from 300,000 this year, is the right target is another matter. Kate Sudak, one of the principals behind Century Initiative, says the 100 million objective could be met by increasing immigration by only five per cent per year.

Whatever the number, Canadian politics might be at a turning point. The idea of expanded immigration would have been politically toxic even a year ago in the smog of the federal election. But in the past few months, even weeks, recognition of the essential benefits of immigration appears to be spreading.

Immigration Minister John McCallum recently hoped to “substantially increase” immigration, although he said this week that the advisory council’s 450,000 a year by 2021 might be too high. Conservative leadership candidate Craig Alexander last week endorsed a 400,000 annual target.

It should be noted that Dominic Barton, head of the Trudeau advisory council, is also a member of the Century Initiative, which was created last January by a group of academics, business types and others, including Naomi Alboim, a veteran immigration activist at Queen’s University.

Last week the Conference Board of Canada, in a report commissioned by the Century Initiative, concluded that Canada could benefit tremendously if immigration levels were increased. Under current policies, Canada’s population might rise from 36 million today to 53 million by 2100, a painfully slow rate that fails to open the way to a growing economy.

Demographically, Canada needs more people — labourers, skilled workers, specialized talent, young people, business people, entrepreneurs, technicians — to carry it through the forces bearing down on the economy. Under current immigration conditions, an aging workforce and other trends will ultimately drive growth lower. According to the Conference Board projections, under the status quo annual growth in the last half of the century will drag at 1.5 per cent, while governments are burdened with rising expenses and weakening tax revenues.

At 100 million people, Canada can expect growth to rise to 2.3 per cent in 2050 and 2.6 per cent by 2100, the Conference Board projects. Economic outlooks that run out 80 years are not quite bankable, but there are more arguments in favour of increased immigration than growing GDP data and tax revenues.

A longtime proponent of the 100-million target for Canada is Toronto academic Irvin Studin. Through his Institute for 21st Century Questions, Studin has been laying the foundation for a national project for years. He sees the target as a chance for a national rebirth, an overarching project in which “we begin to think for ourselves” rather than as appendages of America or Britain or other nations.

The objective, he said in an interview, “appears to be gaining momentum.” At 100 million, Canada would become the second-biggest country in the West. Its cities would be bigger and more numerous, giving the country a critical mass that would make it able to stand on its own, economically as well as politically.

Many will raise objections. Environmentalists argue that Canada does not need more people who would contribute to declining conditions. Studin’s answer is that a bigger and more prosperous nation can afford more and better technologies.

The claim that immigrants take jobs also hangs over Canadian policy-makers. But that, too, can be overcome. While regions of Canada suffer from higher unemployment and lack of job growth, new immigration and a rising population should not be seen as the source of more problems. As Studin said last year, “there are no jobs because there are no people.”

With 100 million Canadians, the dynamics of human interaction, economies of scale, larger numbers of entrepreneurs and creative talent, bigger cities and broader markets would turn Canada into an even greater country than it is today. One might even say that the 21st century could belong to Canada. We should try it.