THE WEAKENING OF ISIL COULD, AT LEAST IN THE BEGINNING, MEAN MORE TERRORIST ACTS.

of a mass return of the jihadists has become the nightmare of the authorities.

This is only one of the paradoxes of the evolution of the Syrian conflict: the weakening of ISIL could, at least in the beginning, mean more terrorist acts. its borders on the steps of the old Ottoman Empire; that of Shiite Iran is to win the battle against Sunni Saudi Arabia, and vice versa. As for Europe, it has been standing aloof, divided, and unable to defend itself without outside help.

Recent developments seem to suggest that the Russian intervention could save the life of Syrian President Bashar Assad, literally and politically. If this is the case, the first victim would not be terrorism.

By repressing violently the peaceful demonstrations in March 2011, and releasing Islamists from prison, the Syrian regime bears the primary responsibility for the disaster in which its country is now drowning. Repression has stirred the jihadist fire in the world. With Assad remaining in power, the opponents, who are sucked up by the jihadist movements, could only become more radicalized. Terrorist groups feed on wars. Hezbollah was born from the war in Lebanon. AlQaida evolved in the Afghan civil war in the 1990s. ISIL has grown on the unstable lands of the Levant.

Syria is the largest provider of refugees in the world. And if migrants constitute a huge humanitarian problem, they also mean a security headache for European societies. They are important targets for the jihadist recruiters, because they are not well integrated, with a robbed past and a forbidden future. Wherever they go, they carry politics with them.