IF THERE WAS COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL, THEY WOULDN’T HAVE STOPPED (DRILLING).

in deeper waters would yield oil and keep royalties flowing and jobs on rigs and research vessels.

The provincial government enthusiastically unveiled a strategy titled “Seizing the Opportunity.”

“New offshore projects would set the stage for new industrial developments, and offer opportunities for exporting the surplus,” it predicted.

But Locke — who has observed the East Coast industry for decades — says much has changed over the past decade, and not for the better in the marginal economics of Nova Scotia’s offshore efforts.

He says higher oil prices are needed to encourage deepwater offshore projects, with long-term prices of $80 to $90 per barrel as a realistic benchmark for offshore developments, rather than current prices of about $55.

The distances from shore of more than 200 kilometres and the technical challenges of drilling in waters over two kilometres deep raise the costs and complexities of the projects as well, he adds.

Shell has an option to drill additional exploration wells in parcels of land it bid on before the Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board, but has not announced plans yet for further activity.

Locke says that silence is worth noting: “If there was commercial potential, they wouldn’t have stopped (drilling).”

Petroleum geologist Grant