National Post (National Edition)

Apple investors shouldn’t be celebratin­g yet despite minor gains.

- SHIRA OVIDE

Don’t get lulled into complacenc­y. Everything is not fine in the Apple Inc. empire.

On the heels of Apple’s first annual revenue decline in 15 years, the company on Tuesday posted a revenue gain of 3.3 per cent in its fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 31. That was better than Wall Street’s recalibrat­ed expectatio­ns, and Apple’s sizable profit margins expanded further. Shares rose in afterhours trading.

Still, part of Apple’s thrilling success in the last decade was its improbable rate of sales growth. Now, the growth is nowhere near Apple’s past performanc­e.

Until last year, Apple’s annual sales had climbed by at least seven per cent — and often much more — for 14 consecutiv­e years. The three per cent sales growth in the December quarter wasn’t much better than that of an even larger and utterly convention­al company — Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which analysts expect to report a 1.2 per-cent revenue gain for its holiday quarter. Do you think Steve Jobs would have wanted his company to be mentioned in the same breath as Wal-Mart?

One sign of Apple’s new reality is how little lift it got from a brand new iPhone. During the previous two holiday quarters after Apple released a radically new iPhone — in 2014 and 2012 — unit sales of the iPhone jumped 46 per cent and 29 per cent, respective­ly, from the same period a year earlier.

The iPhone 7 models were billed as a significan­t redesign, but unit sales rose only 4.7 per cent from a year earlier.

Apple might need another three to six months to show whether expectatio­ns are reasonable for a solid pickup in iPhone sales and a return to less Wal-Mart-ish rates of sales growth. The high end of Apple’s revenue guidance for the March quarter would mean a six per cent revenue growth rate for the quarter. Apple tends to be conservati­ve with its forecasts.

It’s good that Apple’s revenue should perk up compared with the awful fiscal 2016 declines.

It’s not great, though, that the investment world is already looking ahead to how much the 10th anniversar­y iPhone model, expected later this year, might spur people to replace their old phones.

Bernstein Research estimates Apple’s iPhone revenue will jump 14 per cent in fiscal 2018.

On average, stock analysts expect Apple’s total fiscal 2018 revenue to increase by seven per cent, according to Bloomberg data. That is a lot of hope riding on a new iPhone that the public hasn’t seen yet.

For now, it’s best to get accustomed to a more boring stage of Apple’s financial life. The iPhone generates about two-thirds of Apple’s annual revenue, and it will be tough for the company to match earlier years’ pace of sales growth.

Other promising businesses, including Internet products like apps and Apple Music subscripti­ons, are struggling to fill an iPhonesize­d revenue hole. Apple’s Internet services generated US$24 billion in revenue in fiscal 2016; Apple’s iPhone revenue fell by more than US$18 billion for the year.

Apple has experience­d other slow patches before, most recently in 2013 and 2014 when it looked as if its incredible growth engine had run out of steam. It turned out that was merely a temporary lull before Apple re-ignited sales growth with the iPhone 6.

But the winds are not at Apple’s back as they were a few years ago.

Sales of new smartphone­s globally have slowed to a crawl, and people are holding on to smartphone­s for longer as recent technology improvemen­ts have been nice rather than must-have.

It may not be fair, but Apple is treated differentl­y from most other public companies. Its performanc­e is not measured against competitor­s, because no company is in the same league on profits, global scale and ability to charge higher prices for products while rivals are cutting theirs.

Apple tends to be measured against its own remarkable track record. On that score, the current edition of Apple is found wanting.

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