National Post (National Edition)
POLL REVEALS CANADIANS THINK TORONTO IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN IT REALLY IS.
Perception more negative than statistical reality
A poll that asked Canadians how safe they thought certain cities were found that a majority of us have no idea what we’re talking about.
Most participants in the Mainstreet Research/Postmedia poll, which sampled 2,050 people across Canada, ranked Toronto as “unsafe” — 52 per cent said unsafe, 40 per cent said safe and eight per cent were unsure — putting it second-to-last in front of Winnipeg in terms of perceived security
In reality, Toronto is one of the safest cities in the country. Canada’s largest city has a 2016 Crime Severity Index rating of 47.5, putting it in third place nationally behind Quebec City (45.2) and Barrie, Ont. (45.4). Canada’s average index rating for cities is 71.
The index is Statistics Canada’s method of displaying the number of crimes committed in a certain area by a certain population, weighted so that more serious crimes have a larger impact on the number than less serious ones. A higher number means more, worse crime in the area.
Mainstreet president Quito Maggi says the reputation of “big, bad Toronto” is evidence that media is the main driver of people’s perceptions of safety.
“A city like Toronto has a low crime rate — the lowest among those 15 cities that are in the survey — but also has the highest media concentration,” he said. “So a single crime story, a single violent crime, a shooting, can be seen by someone, in national media especially, dozens and dozens of times.”
The most concrete example of media coverage affecting a city’s reputation is that of Quebec City, says Maggi, which fell eight spots from third to eleventh in perceived safety from last year’s survey to this one. The only thing that changed: the mosque shooting.
“It’s very easy to drop in perception, but it’s not that easy to climb back,” Maggi said. “We know the big crime and safety stories and the media coverage does drive these perception scores.”
Though Canadians think Winnipeg is the most dangerous city in the country, that’s by no means true, with a crime severity index of 103.9, putting it fourth-to-last above Edmonton (105.7), Saskatoon (117.8) and Regina (125.8).
If you go by the 2016 crime rate, which counts the number of crimes for a given population as opposed to “weighting” them by severity, Winnipeg gets bumped up to seventh from the bottom, ahead of four B.C. cities: Vancouver, Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna.
“I mean, look at the headlines,” Maggi said, noting that stories about catfishing, child abduction and violent crime get much more attention in Winnipeg than, say, government affairs.
“Really, it’s hard to find a positive sentiment story coming out of Winnipeg,” he said.
The real crime capital of Canada is Regina, with a severity index rating of 125.8. People just don’t hear about the dark sides to Saskatchewan’s cities, Maggi said, because most of the national news that comes out of the province is governmentrelated — how many articles have you seen about Brad Wall lately, compared to robberies in Regina or stabbings in Saskatoon?
Canadians also tend to think of Atlantic cities as safe havens, according to the poll — after top-ranked Ottawa, the next four are Charlottetown, Victoria, Moncton and St. John’s. While Statistics Canada doesn’t have a crime severity index for Charlottetown, the latter two cities are actually above the national average at 75.7 and 79.2 — though it’s worth noting that P.E.I. as a whole has the lowest crime severity rating of any province or territory.
Maggi credits Atlantic Canada’s scores to nobody really knowing what goes on in Atlantic Canada. More people also tend to say “not sure” when asked about cities in the region.
“People think Atlantic Canada is quiet,” he said. “People don’t associate P.E.I. with crime, it’s Anne of Green Gables, or potatoes — nice, peaceful ocean views.”
Canadians are largely right about Ottawa — they ranked it the safest in the country, and they’re not far off. With a severity index of 51.3 it’s well below the national average, though it’s beaten by five areas, including Toronto and Quebec City.
Overall, Maggi said, “Canadians think Canadian cities are pretty safe as a whole.” Only two cities — Toronto and Winnipeg — were categorized by more respondents as unsafe than safe. He says he’ll definitely repeat the study next year.
“Being able to compare how media coverage of crime affects people’s perceptions is interesting to us enough to continue doing this,” he said. “Especially seeing the trend lines over time.”
MEDIA COVERAGE DOES DRIVE THESE PERCEPTION SCORES.