‘THIS IS A SHIFT IN TACTICS’

Islamic militants stepped up their campaign of violence in northern Sinai after the military ousted the Muslim Brotherhood from power in 2013.

The result has been a long, grinding conflict centred on areas like el-Arish, where the latest attack happened, and nearby villages and desert mountains. The militants have been unable to control territory, but the military and security forces have also been unable to bring security.

Largely the attacks have focused on military and police, killing hundreds, although exact numbers are unclear as journalists and independent investigators are banned from the area. But the militants have also assassinated individuals the group considers spies for the government or religious heretics.

“This is a shift in the tactics of the terrorists,” said Hossam El-Rifai, a member of parliament for northern Sinai. “An attack on civilians at Friday prayers is not something we have been used to seeing.”

“This represents the scary prospect that the list of targets they are willing to pursue is growing,” said Timothy Kaldas, non-resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy. “It is hard to know, however, if they were targeted because they were Sufis or because they were perceived to be collaborating with the government.”

While the violence isn’t seen as threatening the stability of el-Sissi’s government, it has devastated the tourist industry, a vital pillar of an economy that’s struggling back to life after years of political upheaval.

Friday’s attack has cast doubt on plans to ease restrictions at the Gaza border, and raised broader questions about the effectiveness of el Sissi’s security strategy.

“The attack will, over the medium-term, damage el Sissi’s credibility as the figure that can protect Egypt, particularly if the security situation does not markedly improve,” Hani Sabra of political risk analyst Alef Advisory said in a note. “And it probably won’t.”