National Post (National Edition)
Iran-saudi tensions dim Yemen peace hope
WAR IS ABOUT MORE THAN THE EGO OR MISCALCULATION OF ONE MAN. —HORAK
There was finally got some good news last week about the tragedy in Yemen, with the announcement of a fragile ceasefire in Hodeidah. If it holds (and that’s a big if), it should help alleviate the dire humanitarian crisis. But turning this agreement into a broader, lasting peace will be a daunting challenge that runs directly up against the Saudi-iranian strategic standoff.
It is fashionable at the moment to lay the blame for the Yemen tragedy at the feet of Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. But this war is about more than the ego or miscalculation of one man — no matter how powerful and reckless he is — and any solution will have to be about more than him or his future.
At its core, the Yemen war is about internal issues and divisions. That is what drove the Houthis to overthrow the elected government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi in 2015, not orders from Tehran. But for the Saudis, their intervention in Yemen was about Iran and the need to confront the perceived strategic threat posed by the victory of “Iranian-controlled” Houthi rebels. It is a paranoia that Iran has consistently fed through its own actions in Yemen.
It would have been very hard for any Saudi leader to ignore a call for help from an ally and neighbour in these circumstances. Letting another Arab capital “fall into the hands of Tehran” would have irreversibly undercut the kingdom’s position and standing in the region.
The Saudi nightmare is an Iranian proxy government in Yemen that would create for Riyadh the same sort of strategic challenge Israel faces daily with Lebanon’s Hezbollah. The conduct of the war — with tens of thousands of projectiles fired from Yemen into the kingdom — has only reinforced that fear. The irony is that war has driven the Houthis closer to Iran and the Hezbollah model than they otherwise would have been.
For Tehran, the war has been a gift that has kept on giving. Iran didn’t start this war, but it has exploited it by providing various types of military support to the Houthis. Not enough to win the war, but sufficient to keep the Saudis boggeddown, embarrassed and vilified internationally for the humanitarian disaster that unfolded (notwithstanding the Houthis’ own, but largely ignored, culpability in this crisis). It’s a low-cost, highreward strategy. If it ends up with a Hezbollah-type ally on the long troubled Saudi border, then that’s a bonus.
Iranian-saudi mistrust is mutual and visceral. The Iranians see the Saudis as little more than a U.S. stalking horse that remains committed to overturning the Iranian Revolution, and Tehran has never forgotten Arab Gulf support for Saddam in the Iran-iraq war.
The Saudis, for their part, continue to believe that Tehran remains committed to exporting its revolution across the region and they view Iran’s regional assertiveness as clear evidence of that continuing reality.
While the prospects for Saudi-iranian reconciliation remain remote, existing tensions are unlikely to devolve into a hot war. Both sides understand the risks. Even with the current U.S. administration, the Saudis can’t be sure that the Americans would actively support them, and the Iranians can’t be sure they wouldn’t. It’s an uncertainty that helps preserve the peace.
What’s left to them are proxy battles in places like Yemen. That’s better than a full-fledged regional war, to be sure, but for Yemenis and others caught in the crossfire it must be hard to tell the difference.
Ideally, the Saudis and the Iranians would let the Yemenis sort out their own future in any potential peace deal. But given Yemen’s ingrained dysfunction, that is a very big ask. Internal challenges will have to be addressed in any peace deal, but the interests of regional outsiders will also influence the final outcome.
The Saudis want out of this war. It has drained their treasury, tarnished their international image and embarrassingly exposed their military weakness. But it can’t be peace at any cost for Riyadh. They will want assurances in any deal that Iran is well and truly out of the equation. Sadly, for millions of Yemenis, that may be easier said than done.