National Post (National Edition)

LET’S ALL MOVE TO ALBERTA.

- TERENCE CORCORAN

In the heat of various economic wildfires raging in Alberta, some have suggested the province is a potential hotbed of separatism. Albexit, some call it. Getting out of Canada, they say, may be the only solution for a province whose resource core is being throttled by the federal government and given the finger by the provinces. A new Angus Reid poll found that 50 per cent of Albertans would support secession from the rest of Canada.

Here’s a better idea. Maybe the rest of Canada might soon consider moving to Alberta where United Conservati­ve Party (UCP) Leader Jason Kenney is building a new political platform based on some good, solid free-market ideas.

In a media and political climate seemingly filled with anti-corporate rage, class-warfare rhetoric, Green New Deals, rising energy taxes and continuing calls for more government spending, Kenney on Monday rolled out a radical economic idea: slash corporate taxes.

At a media event in the lobby of a vacant floor of a Calgary office tower, Kenney announced his party’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate from 12 to eight per cent. “This will make Alberta once again a magnet for job-creating investment, with the lowest taxes on employers in Canada,” Kenney said.

Name another Canadian political leader (other than Maxime Bernier) willing to publicly declare their ambition to reduce corporate taxes by a third. They apparently think it must be political poison. But Kenney, in an interview Monday, said he looks forward to clashing with Rachel Notley’s NDP over corporate taxation. In Alberta, he said, a large number of voters surveyed favoured a 50-per-cent cut in the rate down to six per cent.

Somebody should send a message to the rest of Canada, including federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau, to bring everyone up to speed on the basic economics of corporate taxation. In Ottawa, where federal corporate tax rates are helping make Canadian businesses uncompetit­ive with the United States, the Trudeau Liberals appear to be satisfied that fiddles with depreciati­on rates will be enough to trigger a burst of middle-class prosperity. The latest growth figures, which show Canada’s economy stalling in the last quarter of 2018, suggest otherwise.

According to Kenney, cutting Alberta’s corporate tax rate to eight per cent, the lowest among all provinces, will deliver more jobs and economic growth without damaging the province’s revenue stream. Based on economic modelling by University of Calgary economist Bev Dalby, the tax cut will lead to the creation of 55,000 jobs and a $12.7-billion increase in the provincial GDP. At the end of four years, when the tax rate hits eight per cent, total government revenues will rise to $68.6 billion, about $1.2-billion higher than the $67.4 billion forecast by Notley’s NDP government in a fiscal update last week.

Economic models are not reality, but Kenney says his fiscal plan to balance the provincial budget — headed for an $8-billion deficit this fiscal year — will happen faster with the tax cuts than without. He says that in his party’s final fiscal plan “we believe that within three years or so, holding spending — with zero growth (and) zero cuts — we can get to balance and a government that’s operating more efficientl­y.”

While the NDP plan is to ride (albeit declining) deficits to 2025, Kenney says his plan will move to surplus faster. The objective, said Kenney, is to “maintain the current actual levels of spending, give or take, through the end of the first term.” The NDP forecast Alberta’s operating spending at $49.5 billion this year, rising to $56 billion in 2023–24. Kenney says he’s “talking about staying in the range of $50 billion.”

If Kenney’s UCP does form the next government of Alberta, talk of separation could subside. Instead, the demands will be coming from outside the province to join Alberta and get other provincial and federal policies and tax rates in line with Alberta. The provincial corporate tax rate in British Columbia jumped to 12 per cent in 2018 and it climbs as high as 16 per cent in the Atlantic Provinces. If Alberta goes to eight per cent in four years, it will leave Ontario (11.5 per cent) and Quebec (11.7) at a distinct competitiv­e disadvanta­ge. Those provinces have other things to offer, of course, but a lower tax rate could drive financial, manufactur­ing, service and other sectors to look to Alberta as expansion and relocation opportunit­ies.

Federally, the Trudeau Liberals are so far resisting pressure from business to trim the 15-per-cent federal corporate tax rate, which, combined with the provincial rates, is now seen as a competitiv­e barrier for national and internatio­nal corporatio­ns looking to expand or establish in Canada.

In Alberta, Kenney sees lower corporate taxes as a vehicle to renew energy investment in the province. As he put it, “There’s an oil boom going in North Dakota, Colorado and Texas. It’s true they don’t have the price differenti­al that we do. But … it’s not a huge gap” anymore, he says, with West Texas Intermedia­te worth around US$55 a barrel and Western Canadian Select selling for about US$40. One reason for the U.S. oil boom is the “shift of financial capital plus equipment and people from Alberta to those jurisdicti­ons,” Kenney says. “While we were raising taxes, the U.S. was busy cutting taxes.”

The price of oil, in other words, plays only a part in Alberta’s ongoing economic woes. Policies play a role, too, and Kenney’s message is that new policies, led by lower corporate taxes, will provide a new competitio­n model for Alberta — and the rest of Canada.

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