Liberals lagging in this race

Trudeau is the party’s strength and weakness

OTTAWA • Political predictions are generally lucky or wrong. Anyone handicapping the 2015 Canadian election six months out might have given short odds on the Conservatives, who were eight points clear of the Liberals and 12 ahead of the NDP at the end of April. But those poll numbers masked deep unhappiness with the Harper government and a split in the progressive vote. In the event, of course, the Conservatives fell seven points behind the Liberals on election day.

All that is by way of a cav ea t. Campaign veterans will tell you not much that happens six months before a general election has a material impact on the result — not even the Liberal party’s formation of a circular firing squad in the Snc-lavalin saga.

But the governing party is in all kinds of disarray and if they have not gone over the cliff, they can certainly see the edge from where they are now.

The departure of Gerald Butts has robbed Justin Trudeau of his most trusted political confidante, senior policy adviser and chief electoral strategist. Trudeau’s chief of staff, Katie Telford, performed the role of campaign director in the past election and the assumption was she would do so again. In 2015, Stephen Harper’s deputy chief of staff, Jenni Byrne, moved from the Prime Minister’s Office to the party organization to co-ordinate the campaign. Ideally Telford would do the same but she, and others in the Prime Minister’s Office who would be involved in messaging, nominations, the leader’s tour and other campaign activities, are busy running the country.

Canada Day can’t come soon enough.

“At a certain point, it’s time to pivot. Six months out, it’s not panic time but it will be soon,” said one veteran of many electoral tilts.

The Liberals have nominated around 180 candidates but overwhelmingly they are incumbent MPS. They have been slow in nominating candidates in ridings they don’t hold — a tacit acknowledgment that they are unlikely to make many gains.

There are other strong headwinds, beyond the buffeting organizational and logistical challenges of trying to govern and campaign at the same time.

Emotions are running high in the country, with broad dissatisfaction at the direction in which Canada is heading and the leadership being provided by Trudeau and his government. Pollster Darrell Bricker said in a speech earlier this month he believes the Liberals felt they had more support for their agenda than proved to be the case. He said the public is “ornery” over the “misalignment” of Liberal priorities — the identity politics issues dear to Trudeau’s heart — with the more hard-boiled concerns of many voters.

A majority in a poll conducted by Ipsos believe the country is on the wrong track, while the government’s approval rating has fallen 20 points in the past two years and is now lower than the Harper government’s six months before the last election. Nearly two thirds of respondents say Trudeau does not deserve to get re-elected.

The battle over the federal carbon tax is playing badly with an electorate concerned about affordability issues, particularly among commuters in the suburbs the Liberals need to hold. Rising interest rates mean nearly half of Canadians say they are $200 or less away from financial insolvency at month’s end, according to one recent poll. The government’s promise of a carbon tax rebate requires a level of trust in government that appears entirely absent.

The Liberals won 184 of 338 seats at the last election but various scandals and missteps have left them with 177. They need 170 to command a majority but seem certain to lose a number across the Prairies and in Atlantic Canada.

Can they retain the 80 they won in Ontario that provided the foundation for their electoral victory? That would seem unlikely at current levels of support.

Prophecies are best made after the fact but it seems apparent the Liberals need to ramp up their attempts to marginalize the NDP and demonize the Conservatives if they are to hold the commuter belt around Toronto and pick up seats in British Columbia and Quebec.

No doubt the prime minister will strive to remind voters why so many of them voted for him in the first place by trying to own the “hope” narrative again.

Politics is all about the emotional response to leadership. The anger many people felt watching Trudeau obfuscate over SNC is likely to cool by Labour Day weekend, unless the Conservatives can rekindle that fury with ads such as their recent Justin Trudeau versus The Truth spot.

The Liberals enjoy the advantage of incumbency. Trudeau remains an excellent retail politician and the Liberal campaign will doubtless portray him as a selfless and empathetic politician who does what’s “right,” regardless of electoral outcomes.

Whether voters swallow that fable after the SNC affair remains to be seen.

But he is still the compelling figure on the Canadian political stage, simultaneously the Liberal Party’s greatest strength and weakness.

He is faced by two contenders for the prime minister’s job — Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh — who are in their first federal campaign as leaders.

While professing no proficiency at looking into the seeds of time to predict which grain will grow, it is a good bet neither will be starring in an episode of The Simpsons anytime soon. 2019 is still Trudeau’s to win or lose.