National Post (National Edition)
The risk, and appeal, of Boris Johnson.
BRITISH PRIME MINISTER’S PROMISE MAY BE THAT HE’LL PUT AN END TO THE BREXIT DEBATE
If you haven’t been paying close attention to the saga of Britain’s planned departure from Europe — and why would you? — you might suffer from the impression that Boris Johnson’s elevation to 10 Downing Street on Tuesday was somehow a step towards resolution of the situation.
It’s not, unless you believe that holding your breath until you turn blue is a means of solving complex international relationships involving trade arrangements, regulatory regimes and border controls. Theresa May tried three times to get a painstakingly negotiated agreement with Brussels through Parliament and failed each time. Now she’s been replaced by a man who says he’ll get a much improved deal and double quick too. May had three years; Johnson has three months.
But never mind that: if European Union negotiators don’t produce a better offer, Johnson says, Britain will just walk away. With nothing. No plans, no alternative trade arrangements other than a pledge to explore talks with Donald Trump (like that’s going to be easier) and seek a new deal with Europe of the sort of Canada has. Oh and don’t worry about predictions of painful repercussions for Britons while the future is being worked out … that’s all just codswallop invented by dusty old men in Parliament who can’t see the future with the clarity and certitude of Johnson and his supporters.
If Johnson was a wildly popular politician with solid support within the party and country, his fans’ supreme confidence in his abilities might make some sense. But he’s not. He won the job because two-thirds of the 140,000 party members who cast ballots preferred him to rival candidate Jeremy Hunt. He has a majority of just two or three seats in Parliament and even that edge could melt away quickly as Tory MPs negotiate safe havens with other parties or side with one of the rebel factions dedicated to blocking the new prime minister if he tries to keep his threat of a “no-deal Brexit” should talks fail.
Johnson was typically ebullient in victory, but the scale of the challenge he’s facing was clear. The results had barely been announced when EU leaders proclaimed once again that he will find himself with the same offer they agreed to with May. His strategy for dealing with that reality consists essentially of a two-part plan. Plan A hopes Brussels will agree to attractive new concessions when they realize Johnson is serious about his willingness to walk away, a tactic no one believed May would ever resort to. Plan B would see the Oct. 31 deadline pass without an agreement, followed (or even preceded) by a snap election, which Conservatives take for granted they’d win, because who in their right mind would risk the calamity of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister?
Plan A seems questionable to all but the most devoted Johnsonites. EU leaders have stuck to their guns through more than two years of talks, all the time watching their British counterparts descend into factionalism and infighting. May suffered because Europeans doubted she could deliver on her promises and were proven correct; they’re no more certain of Johnson, who comes with a well-documented reputation for unreliability. In a published article Monday, former prime minister Tony Blair noted that Johnson’s stated negotiating position is based on a fundamental contradiction. On the one hand he insists he will demand a deal in which Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain are treated identically, on the other he says there must be no change in the open border between the northern Irish counties and the Irish Republic to the South, which will remain in the EU.
Blair, whose government negotiated the Good Friday Agreement that finally halted decades of bloodshed in Northern Ireland, saw no reason to believe Europe would give Johnson what it refused to give May. “I see no prospect whatsoever of that happening. None,” he said.
Johnsonites dismiss such pessimism, but it is widely shared. Which suggests the focus could shift quickly to Plan B, which may carry rosier prospects, even for a Tory party that has spent nine years dragging weary voters through a series of referendums and election campaigns that have little to do with the price of a pint. Corbyn stirs real alarm in many voters, including those in the party he leads. At the moment he’s engaged in a stinging internal revolt over his failure to root out a virulent anti-Semitic streak in his party, which saw eight members expelled this year amid hundreds of complaints.
Corbyn acknowledges the problem is real and that “those who deny that it does exist are part of the problem,” but has hardly been impressive in dealing with it. Procedures for handling complaints are cumbersome and bureaucratic. There are still plenty of Labour supporters who can’t see the difference between criticizing Israel and dissing Jews. A BBC report indicated some of Corbyn’s closest allies have tried to interfere in disciplinary efforts.
Apart from that, Corbyn is seen as simply too radical. Should an election seem likely, 40 per cent of Labour members want him to quit in favour of another leader, according to a weekend Times poll. A quarter want him to go immediately, election or no.
It’s not unreasonable to believe Johnson could pull off Plan B, even if Plan A fails. He is a man of great swagger and the appearance of confidence, with a lively personality that contrasts markedly with the plodding dullness that characterized May. It’s a bit wacky that his acolytes proclaim him the one man able to steer Britain through its crisis, given that he did much to create it by promising Britons Brexit would be a walk in the park, largely based on exaggerated claims and distorted figures. At this stage, however, much of the country is simply tired of arguing and would like to move on. Johnson’s biggest attraction may be his promise that, one way or another, he’ll end the debate.
HE IS A MAN OF GREAT SWAGGER AND THE APPEARANCE OF CONFIDENCE.