Saudi Aramco pursues IPO plan despite skepticism

TIMELINE IN DOUBT

RIYADH/ LONDON• Saudi Aramco is pressing on this week with banker meetings about its planned listing, three sources said, although some investors and analysts doubt it can now meet its timeline after the weekend attacks on its oil facilities.

The state-owned oil group will meet local Saudi banks to discuss the initial public offering (IPO) plans, but bankers at international lenders working on the IPO told Reuters there had been no communication from Aramco’s management on any delay.

Aramco, which did not respond to a Reuters request for comment, is continuing to prepare for a local IPO, which the sources said may happen as early as November.

Reuters has reported that Aramco plans to sell 1 per cent this year, in a potential US$20 billion deal, and another 1 per cent in 2020 in Riyadh ahead of an international sale.

Three sources close to the deal said meetings scheduled this week with Saudi banks to discuss the underwriting work they will do in the offering are still scheduled to take place.

But other sources, including bankers and investors, said while work would continue, the attacks would have an impact.

“The train has left the station. But it’s a pretty major event and a lot will depend on how quickly the damage will be repaired,” one banker said.

The Aramco IPO is a pillar of an ambitious economic diversification drive by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has put the firm’s valuation at US$2 trillion. The domestic flotation is the first step of a targeted 5 per cent sale.

“It would seem logical that Aramco’s IPO will be delayed while the damage is assessed but beyond this we would expect that the risk premium that investors will require should the IPO go ahead will now be higher,” said Piers Hillier, chief investment officer at Royal London Asset Management.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude exporter, recently accelerated plans for the IPO, naming a new chairman for Aramco and mandating 9 banks in top roles.

A separate source with knowledge of the deal said Aramco has already carved up the different tasks for banks such as determining valuations, organizing roadshows and focusing on certain geographic areas.

“The banks continue to work on it until they are told otherwise,” the source said.

“The sense is that they want it done as quick as they can.”

An Aramco pre-IPO meeting with analysts, both local and international, is scheduled for next week at Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, two sources, said, with one adding that the meeting would still go ahead as planned despite the attack.

Reuters