National Post (National Edition)
OUR FEARLESS FORECAST FOR THE NHL SEASON
POSTMEDIA PANEL LOOKS INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL FOR 2019-20 CAMPAIGN
1.
What prospect or rookie are you most excited about watching this year?
Don Brennan: Before the Devils made him the first overall pick last June, Central Scouting compared Jack Hughes to Jack Eichel and Connor McDavid. So I expect him to be the best player ever. But not next year. Next year, I’m most looking forward to watching Rangers rookie Kaapo Kakko. Electrifying skills, and a great name to boot.
Jim Matheson: With apologies to Jack Hughes, who’ll tag-team with fellow centre Nico Hischier in New Jersey, I want to see how Kaapo Kakko looks on the wing for the Rangers. He’s a highlight reel waiting to happen.
Steve Simmons: I’ve been hearing about Jack Hughes for about 10 years now. He’s the prototype of the new NHL star: small, quick, immensely skilled.
Michael Traikos: I’m going with Hughes — but not Jack. Instead, keep an eye on his older brother, Quinn, who as a free-wheeling defenceman with the Canucks should rack up a ton of points passing the puck up to Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser.
2.
What off-season addition will have the biggest impact for his new team?
DB: It better be Artemi Panarin. The Bread Man needs to justify all that dough he’s now making with the Rangers. His cap hit of $11,642,857 is the second-highest in the league after McDavid. JM: Sergei Bobrovsky in Florida. Roberto Luongo was running on fumes last season in net because his body was breaking down but Goalie Bob will win 10 games by himself.
SS: Hard to decide between Sergei Bobrovsky and Joe Pavelski (now in Dallas), but I’ll settle on Bobrovsky, because a) he’s a fine goalie and b) boy do the Florida Panthers need goaltending of quality.
MT: James Neal was a train wreck in Calgary, but put him on a line with Edmonton’s Connor McDavid or even Leon Draisaitl and I can see him scoring 30 — or even 40 — goals this season.
3.
Who will win the Art Ross trophy as league’s top scorer?
DB: Tampa is going to be highly motivated after the early playoff exit and that would suggest Nikita Kucherov, who won by 12 points last year, will repeat. But I’m picking Nathan MacKinnon, because the Avalanche will re-sign his right winger Mikko Rantanen and with Gabriel Landeskog they’ll have the best line in hockey.
JM: Connor McDavid, unless new coach Dave Tippett preaches team defence as much as Islanders coach Barry Trotz did last season and McDavid sacrifices those two- and three-point nights for one assist and some Ws and they make the playoffs. If not McDavid, then Nate MacKinnon.
SS: So long as he’s healthy, it’s Connor McDavid’s trophy to lose. He should win this every year.
MT: Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon scored 99 points last year and was even better in the playoffs, where he had six goals and 13 points in 12 games. This could be his big breakout year.
4.
Who will win the James Norris Trophy as top defenceman?
DB: Last season, Morgan Rielly led all defenceman in goals, finished third in points and had a plus-minus that was tied for ninth. And that was while playing with Ron Hainsey. Now his partner will be either Cody Ceci or Tyson Barrie. He may win the Norris AND be the runner up.
JM: We’re getting a different winner every year now — Giordano, Hedman, Doughty, Subban. The rising star is Seth Jones in Columbus so I’ll go out on a very shaky limb and go for him.
SS: There’s a tiny group of game-changing defencemen in the NHL. The best of the bunch, in my view, is Victor Hedman in Tampa. Seth Jones isn’t far behind him. But I’ll stick with Hedman as my Norris choice. MT: Rielly finished fourth in voting last year after scoring 20 goals and 72 points — a 20-point increase from the previous year. It might be an aberration, but as long as Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares remain healthy, Rielly’s offensive production isn’t slowing anytime soon.
5.
Which Canadian teams will make the playoffs, and who will go the deepest?
DB: The Leafs will not only improve on a 100-point season, but could also challenge for the conference crown. Of the Canadian teams, they will go deepest in the playoffs. The Flames will be back in. The same with the Jets. Not sure how, but the Oilers will make the playoffs for just the second time in 14 years.
JM: Toronto, Calgary, Montreal, Winnipeg. Surely the Leafs can win a playoff round, right? I’m saying the Jets before I find out if Dustin Byfuglien retires or not. If he quits and they don’t have him, Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers and Ben Chariot on D, then forget it.
SS: You start with the obvious picks: Toronto, Calgary and Winnipeg, assuming the Jets get Dustin Byfuglien, Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor back. If they don’t, that could present problems. I see Montreal making it this year and that may be all. As for who goes the deepest, not sure any of those teams go beyond two rounds.
MT: I could see as little as two (Toronto and Calgary) and as many as six (Winnipeg, Montreal, Vancouver and Edmonton) making it this year. The Leafs play in too tough of a division to get out of the second round and I’m not sold on the Flames’ goaltending, so I’m putting my money on the Jets — that is, as long as Dustin Byfuglien doesn’t retire, Connor Hellebuyck remembers how to stop the puck, and Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor get re-signed.
6.
Who is the most overpaid player and the most underpaid player in the league?
DB: Overpaid is Loui Eriksson, the Canucks’ fourth line winger who has a cap hit of US$6 million. Vancouver also has the most underpaid in Elias Pettersson, who still has two years left on his entry deal and led the team in goals and points last season.
JM: William Nylander’s salary will be $9 million this year. He’s a good player but he should be at least $2 million cheaper than that. He has 162 career points in 239 games, and just 55 goals. Best buy? At the risk of saying a guy making $6.75 million is looking for spare change in his couch for a coffee, 76 players will make more than Nate MacKinnon this season, and he’s a great one.
SS: Overpaid, easy: Milan Lucic, now in Calgary, with a cap hit of $6 million a year and three years after this one to go on the deal. Underpaid, aside from entry level contracts: Charlie McAvoy, Boston. He’s an upper-echelon defenceman not being paid upper-echelon dollars.
MT: At $6 million per season, Loui Eriksson is the highest-paid member of the Canucks. He scored 11 goals and 29 points last year. As for underpaid: Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point has the 65th-highest salary in the league despite tying for sixth in goals last season and 12th in points.
7.
Whose good 2018-19 season was an aberration last year?
DB: Strictly talking numbers, that would be Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano. He had 74 points last season after never before scoring more than 56. The Flames captain was also a career best plus-39. His previous high was plus-22, while for his first 12 seasons he was a combined plus-46.
JM: Probably Leon Draisaitl’s 50 goals because he’s always been more passer than sniper, and arguably the best backhand passer in the league. The 50 snipes might be a one-off because he had the league’s best shooting percentage at 21.6 per cent and that’s likely not doable again.
SS: Elias Lindholm, Calgary. Scored 78 points last year. Never
had more than 45 in Carolina.
MT: With no Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin around to distract defencemen in Arizona, Phil Kessel won’t score anything close to the 82 points he produced in Pittsburgh last season.
8.
Whose bad season was a solid indicator of reality?
DB: Jeff Carter fell to sixth in team scoring with 33 points. At 34, he may never shoot his age again.
JM: Corey Perry. Love the guy but he had 10 points in 31 games last year in Anaheim after knee surgery. Dallas is taking a chance on him after his buyout but he’s 34 and has 23 goals his last 102 games.
SS: Milan Lucic, Corey Perry, old guys who played a hard game and have been beaten down over time.
MT: Corey Crawford had a .908 save percentage last year — it was the first time in seven years that it dipped below .917. And while the Blackhawks goalie is confident he can bounce back, there was a reason why the team went out and signed Robin Lehner to share (or more realistically, to steal) the net.
9.
Which coach or GM is most likely to be fired before the season ends?
DB: Bruce Boudreau. The Wild are 2-8 in the playoffs since he took over behind the bench and didn’t even qualify for the post-season last year.
JM: Peter Laviolette might be on the hot seat in Nashville even if he’s taken three teams (Carolina, Flyers, Predators) to the finals. Nashville lost in the second round to the Jets in 2017-18 and went out to Dallas in the first round last spring.
SS: Jeff Blashill, Detroit.
MT: Keep an eye on Winnipeg. If the Jets start out slow in the cutthroat Central Division, Paul Maurice’s job could be on the line. And GM Kevin Cheveldayoff may not be far behind.
10.
Who will win the Stanley Cup (and what team will they beat)?
DB: With money committed to the big guns and a total of eight players (including five D-men) poised to hit the UFA market next July, the time is now for the Leafs. Expect them to shore up any weaknesses before the trade deadline and outlast the Dallas Stars in the Cup final.
JM: No team has won back-to-back since Detroit 22 years ago. I said Tampa last year and the Lightning crashed in the first round. I’ll go for Boston as long as Tuukka Rask stands tall. And they’ll beat Vegas in the final.
SS: Picking Tampa Bay again, even though the Lightning have lost their last six playoff games. The East is stacked. The West not so much. So I’m going with Nashville, but not with any great conviction.
MT: I’m picking Tampa Bay over Vegas, but also wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the Coyotes over the Red Wings, because this is the NHL and nothing seems to make sense any more.